October 7, 2009

Olin Buchanan
Rivals.com College Football Senior Writer

NASHVILLE, Tenn. - The final seconds of a 23-7 victory over Vanderbilt ticked away and - Hotty Toddy gosh almighty - all seemed right for Mississippi again.

As the Ole Miss band played, a man in a shiny blue top hat, red sunglasses and bright red suit with "Hotty" and "Toddy" emblazoned in blue glitter on the lapels danced in the Vanderbilt Stadium bleachers alongside Colonel Reb. Others showered praise upon the team as it exited the field. Moments later, the sound of a boisterous victory celebration reverberated behind the door leading to the visitor's locker room.

It was a stark contrast to the sound of stunned silence in South Carolina the previous week.

"There's nothing like a celebrating locker room after a big win," Ole Miss coach Houston Nutt said. "We needed this victory in the worst way."

They got it. In the worst way.

Quarterback Jevan Snead, who frequently has been under pressure this season, threw three interceptions. The Ole Miss defense allowed an average of 4.5 yards per rush to Vanderbilt, which squandered several scoring opportunities.

Even in victory, little was done to assuage concerns that surfaced after a 16-10 loss to South Carolina two weeks ago. Rather, more questions were raised about the Rebels, who are entering a pivotal stretch that will reveal the direction their season may take. Third-ranked Alabama heads to Oxford on Saturday, and the Crimson Tide shows strength in all the areas in which Ole Miss is suspect.

The Crimson Tide already have 15 sacks. Their running game is ranked 10th in the nation. And they average more than 40 points per game.

"We've got to get to the fourth quarter against Alabama," Nutt said. "That's all we're going to be preaching."

But can they? Ole Miss was mugged by South Carolina and struggled with Vandy, which has scored fewer than 10 points in three games this season. Can the Rebels seriously challenge Alabama or LSU for supremacy in the SEC West?

"I think so," Snead said. "The last couple of games, we didn't play as well as we can. I think we're about to pick it up and start rolling. I think we played good quality football [against Vanderbilt], and if we can get rid of the turnovers on my part, we've got a chance."

A month ago, there were no doubts. This was to be a season in which Ole Miss re-established itself among college football's elite, a status not seen at the school since the early '60s. The Rebels closed the '08 season with six consecutive victories, including a Cotton Bowl upset of Texas Tech. The majority of the starters returned from that team, including Snead, who filled a gaping hole at quarterback that had existed since Eli Manning left in 2003.

And despite the losses of All-America offensive tackle Michael Oher and defensive tackle Peria Jerry, both first-round selections in the '09 NFL draft, as well as big-play receiver Mike Wallace, some believed Ole Miss was a legitimate contender for its first national championship since the 1960 team won it under legendary coach Johnny Vaught.

The season began with Ole Miss ranked eighth, its first top-10 preseason appearance since 1970. Bumper stickers reading "Snead 4 Heisman" were appearing on vehicles from Pascagoula to Senatobia. On message boards and radio shows, fans unabashedly predicted Ole Miss would face Florida in Atlanta for the SEC championship - assuming Florida got there, that is.

"I think the majority of [Ole Miss fans] really thought they had a national championship-caliber team," said Bo Bounds, the host of a popular sports talk show in Jackson, the state capital. "Ole Miss fans are always more optimistic and have higher expectations than most schools that have not had much success. It's because of the Johnny Vaught run. You still have dads and granddads of guys who will tell stories about the success Ole Miss had. But that was before integration."

After a closer-than-it-appeared opening win over Memphis, the team suffered an outbreak of the flu. Then, after a win over FCS member Southeastern Louisiana, Ole Miss climbed to No. 4 in The Associated Press poll.

But the outlook turned bleak in South Carolina. Snead was sacked four times and finished 7-for-21 for 107 yards. Talk of a national championship came to an abrupt end, and the Rebels plummeted in the polls.

Afterward, Bradley Sowell, Oher's replacement at left tackle, became an object of statewide derision for suggesting the end of an eight-game winning streak actually was a relief. "I'm glad it's gone so we can get back to working and win some ballgames," he said. "I'm glad it's over with so everyone can just stop talking about it and play ball."

Suddenly, the loss of Oher became much more significant; so was the absence of Wallace, who averaged more than 20 yards per catch in '08. Without his deep speed, opponents aren't as worried about the deep ball and are more willing to blitz.

That doesn't bode well when facing Alabama, which has posted 10 sacks via the blitz and ranks among the best in the country in pass defense.

Another loss would all but shatter Ole Miss' hopes of reaching Atlanta. And with remaining games against improving Arkansas, Auburn and Mississippi State as well as LSU, the Rebels' grandiose aspirations easily could fade into an 8-4 mark.

Most seasons, that would be cause for celebration at Ole Miss. But this season, eight or nine victories would be a bitter disappointment.

The Rebels insist they can be as good as originally expected. Only five teams nationally have allowed fewer points than Ole Miss, and Snead feels the offense is just hitting its stride.

"I think we're very good," he said. "You see glimpses of it. [Vanderbilt] didn't stop us; I think we stopped ourselves. Those picks definitely were drive-stoppers and that hurt us. But as far as what we're doing offensively, I thought we did a great job."

At 3-1, Ole Miss does have a better record than this time a year ago. The game against Alabama is one of six remaining to be played in Oxford. And Snead got off to a slow start last season, then played brilliantly in the second half of the season.

Snead needs to be similarly brilliant for Ole Miss to have a legitimate chance Saturday.

"We have to just come out and execute," he said. "We can't turn the ball over. That's solely on my back. I know what I have to do to get better in that department.

"It's not just me. It's a team thing. But the turnovers ... I can correct that."

He'd better, or the Ole Miss locker room afterward will be more akin to the quiet one following the South Carolina game than the raucous one after the Vandy win.

Olin Buchanan is the senior college football writer for Rivals.com. He can be reached at olin@rivals.com.