September 18, 2009

Olin Buchanan
Rivals.com College Football Senior Writer

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After 18 failed nominations, Susan Lucci finally won an Emmy for her soap opera role of Erica Kane. Film director Martin Scorsese didn't win an Academy Award until 2007 for "The Departed." Denver Broncos quarterback John Elway didn't hoist a Super Bowl trophy until he was 37. Florida State's Bobby Bowden finally won a national championship in his 28th season as a head coach.

Sometimes you just have to wait, just as several programs still are waiting for that elusive first national title.

What are the best programs still without a national title, and which programs appear to be drawing closer to winning? Those are questions to be discussed in this week's mailbag.

Best without a title?

First, it needs to be clear that I'm not counting retroactive championships. Just because a computer geek says some team was national champion in 1920 doesn't make it so. Only teams that were crowned national champions for the season in which they actually played count and are excluded from consideration.

With that in mind, the 10 best programs not to have won a national title are:

Arizona State: Could have won a national title in 1975. Almost did in 1996.
Boise State: The Broncos are the second winningest team in the 2000s.
California: Has a streak of seven consecutive winning seasons.
North Carolina: Won big in the 1990s under Mack Brown and is re-emerging under Butch Davis.
Oklahoma State: Raising its profile with all the money alum T. Boone Pickens has pumped into the program.
Oregon: Likely would have won the national championship in 2007 if not for quarterback Dennis Dixon's season-ending injury.
Utah: Has finished unbeaten twice in the past five seasons.
Virginia Tech: Played for the BCS national title in 1999 and is seeking its third consecutive ACC championship.
West Virginia: Was one upset away from playing for the national title in '07.
Wisconsin: Struggling a bit now, but finished 12-1 as recently as '06.

Of those teams, the three that would seem to have the best chance to win a national championship within the next 10 years are Virginia Tech, Arizona State and California.

Coach Frank Beamer has built Virginia Tech into a bona-fide national power; the Hokies have posted at least 10 victories in six of the past seven seasons despite some key injuries some of those years.

Virginia Tech usually plays well on special teams and always is strong on defense. The Hokies will be especially dangerous if and when they add an explosive offense. That may require avoiding injuries, which has already been a problem this season with the loss of tailback Darren Evans.

But the Hokies have come close so frequently it's not unlikely they could put it all together for one incredible year.

Arizona State was unbeaten in '77 (it finished second in the polls) and almost won the national title in 1996, when the Jake Plummer-led Sun Devils lost to Ohio State in the final minute of the Rose Bowl.

Now in their third season under coach Dennis Erickson, a proven winner with two national championships, the Sun Devils can be optimistic for the future. Just two seasons ago Arizona State finished 10-3. Even more successful seasons could loom ahead.

California has been a consistent winner since coach Jeff Tedford took over the program eight years ago and even shared a Pac-10 championship in '06. Berkeley is among the coolest college towns in the country, and coming facility upgrades will make the football program more attractive to prospects.

The Bears still have to overcome their tendency to stumble on the road and lose a game or two they shouldn't, but it's a program that still is rising. Indeed, with running back Jahvid Best, a good defense, solid receivers, strong special teams and quarterback Kevin Riley apparently improved, the Bears may make a run at the national title this season.

Unhappy with Heisman

I'm not agreeing with you on this one. There is nothing disgraceful about the Heisman, which is why athletic departments will spend thousands to promote their athletes for it.

So what if Bradford or Tebow weren't listed on every ballot last season? They still were finalists for the award. And I thought the right guy won; I voted for Bradford.

There always will be dissenting opinions in any vote. Heck, my dad still thinks George McGovern should have won in '72. But I'd say the vast majority of Heisman recipients deserved the honor.

For example, I voted for Texas quarterback Vince Young in '05, but I can't say that USC's Reggie Bush - who won - was not a deserving candidate. Also, my 2003 vote went to Pittsburgh wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, who finished behind Oklahoma quarterback Jason White. Although I thought Fitzgerald was better, I couldn't argue against White, who also had a spectacular season.

Go ahead and call the Heisman whatever you want, but I believe it's still the most prestigious individual award in sports.

Untested Hawgs

Back in the spring, we projected Arkansas as the possible "surprise" team of 2008. Indeed, picking the "surprise" team - like Wake Forest in '06, Kansas in '07 or Alabama of '08 - has become almost as traditional as predicting a national champion.

Arkansas is in its second season under coach Bobby Petrino, and it's no secret that numerous second-year coaches have had success this decade. In addition, Mallett is the type of quarterback who figures to thrive in Petrino's offense. The Razorbacks also brought in some junior college transfers to try to upgrade a leaky secondary.

Also encouraging was the Razorbacks' performance in the second half of last season. They were 3-4 in those seven games, but there were three losses by three or fewer points. They also closed the season with an upset of LSU.

The momentum carried over into this season's opener. Mallett passed for 309 yards and the Razorbacks set a school record with 447 passing yards in a 48-10 victory over Missouri State. True, Missouri State is an FCS team, but last season the Razorbacks were lucky to eke out an opening win over FCS member Western Illinois.

Of course, all the encouraging signs don't guarantee anything. But the next two games - against Georgia in Fayetteville and at Alabama - should reveal just how much better the Razorbacks are. I'd expect them to split those games. I believe Arkansas will have between seven and nine wins and make a bowl game. But I don't think the Razorbacks are good enough to win the SEC West.

Home cooking?

TCF Bank Stadium is gorgeous, and on-campus football has created excitement at Minnesota. Coach Tim Brewster also has a solid team.

Upsets happen every week, and the Gophers certainly are capable of notching one. But don't expect it this week.

Although Minnesota aspires to run more often and more effectively, the strength of the Gophers' offense remains the passing game with quarterback Adam Weber and wide receiver Eric Decker. That's playing directly into the strength of Bears, whose secondary is one of the best in the nation.

In addition, Cal has great speed on offense and quarterback Kevin Riley has turned in consecutive strong showings. The folks in Berkeley are convinced this is their year to win and win big, and they might be right.

Cal has been vulnerable on the road. The Bears have lost four road games in each of the past two seasons, so that would suggest the Gophers definitely have a chance. But Minnesota must play significantly better than it did against Syracuse in the opener and against Air Force last week.

I'm anticipating a Cal victory.

Olin Buchanan is the senior college football writer for Rivals.com. He can be reached at olin@rivals.com.
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