September 17, 2009

Rivals.com Staff

At the College Football Roundtable each week, we ask each member of the college football coverage staff for his opinion about a topic in the sport.

TODAY'S QUESTION: Does Michigan's performance last week against Notre Dame mean the Wolverines are a legitimate Big Ten title contender this season?

Slow down a little. Although Michigan's 38-34 victory over Notre Dame was impressive and exciting, it's premature to trumpet the Wolverines as championship contenders, even in a mediocre conference such as the Big Ten. The leap from three-win team in '08 to conference champs in one year seems unlikely. Illinois did improve from two wins in '06 to reach the Rose Bowl in '07, but the Illini didn't win the Big Ten championship that season. Michigan figured to improve just being in the second year of coach Rich Rodriguez's system. And no doubt QB Tate Forcier makes the Wolverines significantly better. But he's a true freshman and they typically make mistakes. Michigan will pull off a few more impressive victories and reach a bowl, but I'm not ready to say the Wolverines are on par with Ohio State and Penn State just yet.

- OLIN BUCHANAN

I think it does. Yes, Michigan's defense was strained by Notre Dame's offense, but don't read too much into that. The Irish will burn a lot of teams this season with that prolific attack. The bottom line: Michigan's defense found a way to survive under coordinator Greg Robinson and is good enough to mute any Big Ten attack. But the real reason for excitement is the offense, led by wunderkind quarterback Tate Forcier. Looking ahead, Michigan has a manageable schedule, with Penn State and Ohio State traveling to Ann Arbor later this fall. If the Big Blue opens Big Ten play 3-0 (Indiana, at Michigan State, at Iowa), it will be a confident team heading into the second half of the season.

- TOM DIENHART

Rich Rodriguez's second-year turnaround is not a myth. Michigan is a Big Ten contender again. At this point, the only certain loss I see on the schedule for the Wolverines is the Oct. 24 game against Penn State (sorry, Ohio State). That doesn't mean I believe Michigan will go 11-1, far from it. The Wolverines are probably an eight- or nine-win team. Meanwhile, favorites Penn State and Ohio State don't look like teams that will run away with the conference title. The Nittany Lions have struggled to run the ball even against their weak non-conference schedule, while Ohio State has its own issues to conquer. As for Michigan, a freshman quarterback is bound to hit a speed bump or two (at Michigan State and at Iowa in back-to-back weeks, and road trips to Illinois and Wisconsin), but the Wolverines will be a factor in the Big Ten.

- DAVID FOX

I think Michigan is a year away from being a legit Big Ten contender. The Wolverines now have a quarterback who understands what Rich Rodriguez wants and is able to make plays. There are a number of good wide receivers. Running back Brandon Minor is a good fit for the offense. And the linemen seem to have gotten the hang of the new blocking schemes. Defensively, though, I think the Wolverines are somewhat suspect. There is no shame in getting torched by Notre Dame's passing attack; that will happen to a lot of teams this season. But I think Michigan is one more recruiting class away from having enough difference-makers on defense. Michigan can go 8-4/9-3 this season, and given what the Wolverines went through last season, that is amazing. Beginning next season, though, the balance of power in the league easily could shift from Columbus/State College to Ann Arbor. Michigan is one of the few schools that can legitimately recruit nationally. If Rodriguez continues to reel in talent, what could be beginning to happen in Ann Arbor should make the rest of the Big Ten mighty nervous.

- MIKE HUGUENIN

Ohio State and Penn State remain the clear-cut favorites for the Big Ten title, but the first couple of weeks of the season have made me think Michigan is establishing itself as a dark-horse contender. Before the season, I figured Iowa, Michigan State or Wisconsin were the teams with the best chance of threatening the Ohio State-Penn State stranglehold atop the conference standings. Since then, Iowa has struggled to beat Northern Iowa, Wisconsin has needed overtime to escape Fresno State and Michigan State has lost to Central Michigan. In the meantime, Michigan blew out Western Michigan and knocked off Notre Dame. The Wolverines clearly have gotten the hang of the spread option, and you have to figure true freshman quarterback Tate Forcier will get better and better as the season goes on. If you want to start getting really optimistic, Penn State and Ohio State both have to travel to the Big House. Penn State and Ohio State have far better defenses than Notre Dame, but it's not out of the question that Michigan could steal at least one of those games at home. My concern is how Michigan will fare on the road with a freshman quarterback and a suspect defense. The Wolverines travel to Michigan State and Iowa on back-to-back October weekends. They play at Wisconsin the week before the Ohio State game. As good as Michigan has looked so far, an 8-4 or 9-3 record with a third-place finish in the Big Ten still looks like the most likely forecast. The Wolverines remain a year away from making a serious run at the conference title.

- STEVE MEGARGEE