September 2, 2009

Olin Buchanan
Rivals.com College Football Senior Writer

College football is a game of trends and tendencies.

For example, Oklahoma rarely loses on its home field. Texas usually posts 10 wins or more; South Carolina doesn't. Boston College seemingly always reaches a bowl game; New Mexico State almost never does. Only one team with a true freshman quarterback has won a national championship. Texas Tech quarterbacks typically lead the nation in passing. First-week upsets are becoming more and more common.

Some trends continue. Others are bucked.

So, with the 2009 season upon us, here's a top-25 look at streaks that will be continued, streaks that will end and some other predictions:

USC never has lost in November under Pete Carroll. That doesn't figure to change. The Trojans play three games in November - at Arizona State and at home against Stanford and UCLA.

Despite its November dominance, the Trojans fail to win a national championship. True freshman Matt Barkley is USC's starting quarterback. The 1985 Oklahoma Sooners, with Jamelle Holieway, are the only team to win a national championship with a true freshman starting at quarterback.

Lou Holtz and Beano Cook have predicted Notre Dame will play for the national championship. Doubt that. But the Irish should be significantly improved. Still, they lost to Syracuse last season, so no win can be taken for granted. Nine victories is reasonable and should be sufficient to keep coach Charlie Weis' job secure.

Tennessee will be heavy underdogs in its Sept. 19 game at Florida. But to show that road underdogs can't be taken lightly, Volunteers first-year coach Lane Kiffin will reference Stanford's 2007 upset of second-ranked USC in Los Angeles. It was the Cardinal's first year under coach Jim Harbaugh, who had made comments that irked Carroll in the previous offseason.

The Tennessee-Florida game won't bear any resemblance to Stanford-USC. Florida coach Urban Meyer, who was annoyed by comments made by Kiffin during the offseason, will aim to score 50 points.

Alabama's Leigh Tiffin will lead the nation in field-goal attempts. With a strong defense and explosive Javier Arenas returning punts, the Crimson Tide look to get consistently good field position. The offense is questionable, but Tiffin can hit from beyond 50 yards.

South Carolina will avoid a losing record for the sixth consecutive season. That's a greater accomplishment than it may seem. The Gamecocks haven't posted six consecutive non-losing seasons since 1929-1934. Steve Spurrier may be doing a better job than he's being credited for in Columbia.

Look for LSU's defense to play like ... well, an LSU defense. Last season, the Tigers were uncharacteristically generous: Five opponents scored more than 30 points on the Tigers. That hadn't happened since 1953. Don't look for it to happen again with former Tennessee coordinator John Chavis now running the defense.

Ohio State has lost four consecutive games against ranked non-conference opponents. The Buckeyes need a big win to regain a measure of respect for themselves and the Big Ten. The opportunity comes Sept. 12 against USC. The Buckeyes will end that streak against the Trojans.

Texas has eight consecutive seasons with at least 10 victories, the nation's longest current streak of double-digit wins. The Longhorns will extend the streak to nine. A non-conference schedule of Louisiana-Monroe, UTEP, Wyoming and UCF surely will help the cause.

Oklahoma will keep stormin' in Norman. In 10 seasons under coach Bob Stoops, the Sooners are 60-2 on their home field. They have six home games this year. But a word of caution: They close at home against Oklahoma State, which dealt OU one of those two home losses.

Texas Tech coach Mike Leach and Texas A&M coach Mike Sherman exchanged verbal jabs during the offseason. Leach likely has the last word. This season's A&M-Tech game is in Lubbock, where the Aggies have endured seven consecutive losses. The past three have come by an average margin of 32.6 points.

Taylor Potts threw for 260 yards last season. This season he leads the nation in passing. Why? Because he's starting quarterback at Texas Tech. A Red Raiders quarterback has led the nation in passing in eight of the past nine seasons.

Baylor hasn't reached a bowl since 1994, when it was in the old Southwest Conference. Behind sophomore quarterback Robert Griffin, the drought ends this year. And speaking of brilliant young quarterbacks ...

Redshirt freshman Andrew Luck leads the way as Stanford ends its bowl drought, which extends to 2001. Inconsistent quarterback play crippled the Cardinal last season. Luck figures to solve that problem. Stanford has a good shot at a 5-0 start.

Last season, Vanderbilt made its first bowl appearance in 26 years. Now, the Commodores aim for consecutive bowl appearances for the first time ever. Can they do it? The guess here is they manage six wins and are bowl eligible.

Boston College, which lost to Vandy in the Music City Bowl, has a streak of 10 consecutive seasons with a bowl appearance. But no team had a tougher offseason than the Eagles. Coach Jeff Jagodzinski was fired. Star linebacker Mark Herzlich was diagnosed with cancer. Projected starting quarterback Dominique Davis was declared academically ineligible. Then, last week, 25-yer-old quarterback David Shinskie, in the hunt for the starting job, broke a rib. Look for the Eagles' bowl streak to end.

First-year New Mexico State coach Dwayne Walker has a tough job. The Aggies are mired in the nation's longest bowl-less streak. They haven't made a postseason appearance in 48 seasons; the drought will reach 49 seasons.

A November schedule that includes West Virginia, USF and Rutgers will cause Louisville to close with a thud. The Cardinals will fail to reach a bowl for the third consecutive season, prompting the dismissal of coach Steve Kragthorpe. Former Tennessee coach Phillip Fulmer immediately will be considered the most likely successor.

Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez's job security won't be much better than Kragthorpe's. Under Rodriguez, Michigan has gone 3-9 (including a loss to Toledo), had several prominent players transfer, had a player (Justin Feagin) kicked off the team in the wake of a drug investigation and has been accused by players for violating NCAA rules on practice limitations. Winning cures all, so the Wolverines better win this season or Rodriguez could have a short tenure in Ann Arbor.

The longest streak of consecutive seasons with a 1,000-yard rusher belongs to Cal with seven. It will climb to eight. Only a broken leg can keep Jahvid Best from hitting four digits. That might not even be enough. And if for some reason Best can't reach 1,000, backup Shane Vereen can.

Count on Arizona State bouncing back from a 5-7 showing in '08 to post a winning record this season. In 20 years as a college head coach, the Sun Devils' Dennis Erickson never has experienced back-to-back losing seasons.

Six times this decade, TCU has posted at least 10 victories, but the Horned Frogs never have managed to go undefeated, which is a requirement for a non-Big Six conference team to make a BCS bowl. Look for the Frogs to reach double-digit victories again, but they will come up short in their quest for a BCS bid. Early games at Virginia and Clemson and an Oct. 24 visit to BYU are where the Frogs are most likely to stumble.

Boise State will emerge as a BCS team. The Broncos haven't lost a regular-season home game since 2001 and are 23-1 in Western Athletic Conference games in the past three seasons. Their greatest challenge to an undefeated season is Thursday's season opener against Oregon. But that game is in Boise. A four-game midseason stretch - at Tulsa, at Hawaii, vs. San Jose State and at Louisiana Tech - will be a grind, but the Broncos will be favored in each of those games.

Anticipate at least one stunning upset of a ranked team in the first week of the season. Last season, it was East Carolina over No. 17 Virginia Tech. In '07, it was Appalachian State over No. 5 Michigan. In '06, it was Tennessee by 17 over No. 9 California. In '05, it was TCU over No. 7 Oklahoma. Who will be the loser this season? Notre Dame? Cal? Ole Miss?

Olin Buchanan is the senior college football writer for Rivals.com. He can be reached at olin@rivals.com.