August 28, 2009

Olin Buchanan
Rivals.com College Football Senior Writer

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Bowl games supposedly are a reward for a successful season. Yet with 34 bowl games, teams don't have to be that successful to get a bid.

N. C. State, Memphis and Northern Illinois finished with losing records last season because they lost their bowl games.

Still, just reaching a bowl game is a major goal for some programs. Last season, Vanderbilt made it first bowl appearance in 26 years.

There are 15 Football Bowl Subdivision teams that haven't reached a bowl this decade. But that drought may be coming to an end for one of those teams.

Which one?

The answer can be found in this week's mailbag.

A bowl for Baylor?

Fifteen years have passed since Baylor lost to Washington State 10-3 in the Alamo Bowl. That was the last time the Bears made a postseason appearance.

The drought could end this season. The six victories required for bowl eligibility don't seem as unreachable as in previous seasons.

The Bears have eight returning starters on both sides of the ball. Heading the list is sophomore quarterback Robert Griffin, who passed for 2,091 yards and rushed for 843 last season.

The Bears have to replace both starting offensive tackles from '08, including Jason Smith, the second selection in the NFL draft. But coach Art Briles is high on junior college transfer Danny Watkins as Smith's replacement. And defensive tackle Phil Taylor, a transfer from Penn State, gives the Bears a significant upgrade in the middle of the defensive line.

Baylor came tantalizingly close to bowl eligibility a year ago. The Bears finished 4-8, but lost by three points to both Connecticut and Missouri and led Texas Tech going into the fourth quarter before succumbing 35-28.

Baylor faces all three of those teams again this season, and none project to be as good as they were last season.

The key for Baylor is a fast start. The Bears open at Wake Forest before playing consecutive home games against Connecticut, Northwestern State (La.) and Kent State. A 4-0 or 3-1 start is a distinct possibility.

Later, the Bears travel to play Iowa State and Texas A&M, teams they beat last season. And this Baylor team appears capable of pulling off an upset or two. I wouldn't expect Baylor to beat Oklahoma, Oklahoma State or Texas, but Nebraska, Missouri and Texas Tech had better not take the Bears lightly.

Transferring blame

Mustain's story is sad, but Nutt isn't the villain.

Mustain was one of the top-rated quarterback prospects in the nation out of Springdale (Ark.) High School in 2006. He signed with Arkansas when Nutt was the coach. Nutt also hired Mustain's high school coach, Gus Malzahn, as offensive coordinator.

In '06, Arkansas had running backs Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, both future NFL first-round picks. The offense featured them, as well it should. Nutt should have been fired if the offense wasn't built around them, and that offense was good enough to get Arkansas to the SEC championship game.

Mustain started eight games that season but threw nine interceptions and was benched. After the season, he transferred to USC.

What stand should the NCAA take? It cannot legislate what players should start.

Mustain suffered, but don't suggest Nutt didn't. He became the center of statewide controversy and eventually left.

Had Mustain stayed at Arkansas, he'd probably be in his second or third season as the Razorbacks' starter. Instead, he's the Trojans' third-string quarterback, behind Matt Barkley and Aaron Corp.

Frankly, it surprised me that Mustain didn't transfer to a junior college last year after he was beaten out by Mark Sanchez. That way, he could have been recruited again and perhaps made a better decision. Perhaps he would be playing at Auburn, where Malzahn now is offensive coordinator. Or maybe he'd have signed with Tulsa or another program that would have given him a chance to throw frequently.

Still, all indications are Mustain is happy at USC. That's all that really matters, isn't it?

Husker hopes

Nebraska will resurface as a perennial power in the Big 12. With so much tradition, history and passion for the program, it's just a matter of time before the Huskers are contending for the league championship.

But don't count on the Huskers being the juggernaut they were in the '90s, when they won three national championships in four years. That was a once-in-a-lifetime run. And the Big 12 is much stronger than the old Big Eight was, so winning is more difficult.

The Huskers are on the verge of regaining their status among the national elite. They made significant progress last season by posting nine victories in their first season under coach Bo Pelini. In addition, the Huskers were the preseason pick to win the Big 12 North by the media covering the league.

The Huskers project to be strong defensively. The offensive line should be solid. Running back Roy Helu has the potential to rush for 1,000 yards. If first-year quarterback Zac Lee flourishes in that job and some reliable receivers surface, it will be another strong season in Lincoln, though the Huskers don't appear ready to challenge Oklahoma or Texas for Big 12 supremacy just yet.

Nebraska is 74-40 this decade and played for the national championship in 2001. By most standards, that's a good era. But Nebraska demands so much more. The four seasons before Pelini's arrival were trying times for Nebraskans. The Huskers went 27-22 in that span and endured two losing seasons. Before that, they hadn't had a losing year since 1961.

But every powerful program goes through lean periods. Miami is going through one now. So is Michigan.

Oklahoma was 23-33-1 from 1994-1999, but the Sooners have posted 102 wins this decade. Texas has won at least nine games in each of its 11 seasons under Mack Brown, but was rather mediocre through much of the '80s and '90s.

Penn State is 40-11 over the past four years, but the Nittany Lions had four losing records in five seasons before that. USC managed just one Pac-10 championship in the '90s. This decade, the Trojans have won or shared seven consecutive conference titles.

Nebraska will be resurgent, too.

Three-way?

It's possible. California plays at Oregon on Sept. 26, a week before playing host to USC. USC is at Oregon on Oct. 31. If the three end up tied, the Pac-10 would break the tie in the same manner in which the Big 12 broke last season's South Division tie among Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech.

The Pac-10 handbook states: "If more than two teams are still tied after comparing their records all the way through the conference standings, the team among the tied teams with the highest ranking in the final BCS standings shall be the Rose Bowl representative."

Upsetting thoughts

Obviously, that's a tough call. Who foresaw Michigan losing to Toledo last season or Appalachian State in 2007? Who would've expected Stanford to beat USC or Pittsburgh to beat West Virginia in '07?

Actually, it's impossible to predict the biggest upset. After all, how can it be the most stunning upset if it's predictable?

But since you asked, here are a couple of games that could get dicey for projected heavy favorites:

? Western Michigan at Michigan, Sept. 5: The Wolverines have been victimized in their opener in each of the past two seasons. This could make for a trifecta, especially if the offense continues to sputter.

? Nevada at Notre Dame, Sept. 5: Some suggest the Irish could be national championship contenders. Remember, they struggled to beat San Diego State in last year's opener. Nevada scored at least 31 points 11 times last season.

? Oklahoma State vs. Houston, Sept. 12: This game is a week after the Cowboys play a much-hyped opener against Georgia. Houston can score in bunches, and there are questions about Oklahoma State's defense.

? Southern Miss at Kansas, Sept. 26: Although the Jayhawks are one of the top two contenders to win the Big 12 North, they could be in trouble here. Kansas' pass defense was among the worst in the country last season, and Southern Miss throws the ball well.

? Georgia Tech at Mississippi State, Oct. 3: Sandwiched by conference games against North Carolina and Florida State, this road trip could be a road trap for the Yellow Jackets.

Olin Buchanan is the senior college football writer for Rivals.com. He can be reached at olin@rivals.com.
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