August 7, 2009

Olin Buchanan
Rivals.com College Football Senior Writer

Got a question? Click here to send it to Olin's Mailbag

The 2009 football season kicks off in just less than four weeks, which means in about five months, disappointed programs will be seeking new coaches to replace fired ones.

About a dozen coaches enter each season knowing they need a good year to retain their jobs. That might be defined as an appearance in a bowl game, a winning season with a victory over a rival or even a conference championship.

At Notre Dame, which is just 10-15 in the past two seasons, nine victories might be required for coach Charlie Weis to stay in charge. If the Irish fall short, Notre Dame could be looking for another coach. But where would the Irish look?

That's something to ponder in this week's mailbag.

Irish plans?

The heat is on Weis, but look for his seat to have cooled substantially by December. The Irish should be much better with improving quarterback Jimmy Clausen, a dangerous receiving duo in Michael Floyd and Golden Tate and a favorable schedule. A 10-win season is a real possibility.

If Notre Dame falters and finishes with just seven or eight victories, it likely would result in a coaching change. In that case, Meyer's contract would not necessarily eliminate him from consideration.

His buyout reportedly is only $500,000, which is front-pocket money for wealthy boosters who want him to run their favorite programs. The question is whether Meyer would be interested.

Last month, he said he wasn't ever leaving Florida. But last year, he said Notre Dame was his "dream" job. Maybe he has had a change of heart. But coaches are known to massage the truth now and then. Only time will tell.

As far as possible replacements if Weis is ousted and Meyer is unavailable, a few names come to mind: Greg Schiano of Rutgers, Tom O'Brien of North Carolina State, Gary Patterson of TCU, Brian Kelly of Cincinnati and perhaps Paul Johnson of Georgia Tech.

Best conference?

Our friends in Brazil know all about World Cup soccer, how to throw a great carnaval parade and sexy bikinis. But clearly they're not as up to date on college football.

The Big 12 is among the strongest conferences, but it ranks no higher than second as a football league. The SEC's status as the strongest college football conference is hard to debate, even with that conference coming off a "down" year in which Tennessee, Auburn and Arkansas struggled.

SEC teams have won the past three national championships and five of the 11 BCS titles. The Big 12 has won two ? Oklahoma in 2000 and Texas in '05.

Furthermore, in the past five seasons, the SEC is 7-3 against the Big 12 in bowl games. Two of those victories came last season ? Florida over Oklahoma in the BCS national championship game and Ole Miss over Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl.

The Big 12 did have more teams ranked in last season's final poll than the SEC (5-4), but the SEC still is the dominant league.

Red Raider love?

I think the Red Raiders have gotten tremendous respect. Just last season, they were ranked No. 2 in the nation before getting blown out by Oklahoma. This season, they will likely be ranked among the preseason top 25.

Isn't that respect?

True, the Red Raiders were picked fourth in the Big 12 South preseason poll, but that has more to do with the strength of Oklahoma, Texas and Oklahoma State than any disrespect for coach Mike Leach's crew.

Quarterbacks Sam Bradford of Oklahoma, Colt McCoy of Texas and Zac Robinson of Oklahoma State are returning. In contrast, first-year starter Taylor Potts is leading the Red Raiders' offense and he's without All-America receiver Michael Crabtree, who left early for the NFL.

Texas Tech historically has been a poor road team. The Red Raiders are 15-12 on the road over the past five seasons. This season, they play Texas, Houston, Nebraska, Oklahoma State and Baylor on the road; there could be three or four losses there. The Red Raiders also play host to Kansas and Oklahoma.

It's possible the Red Raiders will overachieve. Maybe Potts will prove every bit as good as Graham Harrell. Maybe Crabtree's absence won't be devastating. Maybe the defense will continue to get better. But from here, the chances of matching last season's 11 victories seem unlikely. Nine wins would appear more realistic.

That's not being disrespectful. That's just being objective and honest.

Remaining neutral

Look for the rotating system to continue.

The frustration of playing a national championship game in the opponents' home state is understandable, but that's just the luck of the draw. Remember, Oklahoma also lost to USC in Miami. No home-field advantage there.

Besides, Texas defeated USC in the Rose Bowl in 2005, which contradicts the home-field argument.

Oklahoma isn't going to host a national championship game, but it's possible the Sooners could get the next best thing. Now that the Cotton Bowl has moved to the new Dallas Cowboys stadium, it conceivably could be worked into the BCS championship game rotation. Then, Oklahoma would have a shot at advantageous proximity.

One win away

The departure of those teams certainly weakened the Big East overall, but the conference has recovered.

In the three seasons it has been an eight-team league, the Big East is 12-4 in bowl games and 2-1 in BCS games.

In fact, if not for Pittsburgh's stunning upset of West Virginia in 2007, the Big East might have a national championship to its credit.

Adding more teams would help the Big East's image, but what teams are available? If Penn State and Notre Dame joined, the Big East's stock would jump. But Penn State appears comfortable in the Big Ten, and Notre Dame doesn't seem willing to change its status as an independent.

What other teams are there? The top teams not already in a "Big Six" conference are out west ? Boise State, Utah, BYU and TCU. That wouldn't make geographic sense. Does East Carolina or UCF enhance the Big East's image? Probably not.

In addition, the Big East already has 16 teams in basketball. Adding new schools could create problems there.

Heisman revisit

Frazier deserved consideration and votes in 1995, but don't forget George rushed for 1,826 yards for 11-2 Ohio State team that season. He was a deserving recipient in my opinion.

My answer will include players that had tremendous seasons but who were denied for various reasons.

Notre Dame's Paul Hornung won it in 1956 despite playing for a team that finished 2-8. The Irish scored 14 or fewer points in six of their 10 games that season. Meanwhile, Syracuse's Jim Brown finished fifth in the voting even though he was third in the nation in rushing for the 7-2 Orange and scored 106 points in nine games, just 24 less than the entire Notre Dame team that season. At that time, no black player had won the trophy.

In addition, Georgia running back Herschel Walker or Pittsburgh defensive end Hugh Green probably should have won it over South Carolina's George Rogers in 1980. Rogers did lead the nation in rushing with 1,781 yards, but Walker gained 1,616 and led Georgia to the national championship. Green, who was second in the voting, had 123 tackles, 17 sacks and forced seven fumbles. Walker didn't win because he was a freshman. Green didn't because he played defense.

No primarily defensive player won the Heisman until Michigan cornerback Charles Woodson did in 1997. That season, I voted for Tennessee quarterback Peyton Manning, who was denied mainly because the Volunteers lost to Florida for the fourth time in a row.

I did vote for a defensive player in 2001, when Oklahoma safety Roy Williams was the most outstanding player I saw. Nebraska quarterback Eric Crouch won the award that season.

San Diego State's Marshall Faulk would have been a worthy recipient in 1992 over Miami quarterback Gino Torretta, but playing for a low-profile team cost Faulk.

I also thought Pitt receiver Larry Fitzgerald should have won over Oklahoma quarterback Jason White in 2003. White had a great year, but he didn't strike me as the best player on the Sooners' offense; wide receiver Mark Clayton did. Meanwhile, Fitzgerald led the nation in receiving with 92 catches for 1,672 yards and 22 touchdowns.

Olin Buchanan is the senior college football writer for Rivals.com. He can be reached at olin@rivals.com.
Got a question for Olin's Mailbag? Click here to drop him a note