July 22, 2009

Olin Buchanan
Rivals.com College Football Senior Writer

Like eggs, months come in a group of 12. But while one bad egg won't ruin the whole dozen, one bad month can scramble a year's worth of work, preparation and aspirations for a college football team.

That's why the success of various teams may be defined by how they manage a challenging, even treacherous, month on their schedule.

For instance, in September, Oregon faces Boise State, Purdue, Utah and California, which combined to go 38-13 last season. All but Purdue figure to be in the preseason top 25.

If the Ducks get through that stretch unscathed, or even with one loss, they likely will be ranked high, viewed as a contender in the Pac-10 (and maybe even the national championship race) and on their way to a nine- or 10-win season, assuming they continue to roll when the caliber of competition eases.

On the other hand, doubts will arise if they struggle through that stretch. How many victories can the Ducks expect with the likes of USC and Oregon State looming later in the season?

Miami faces arguably an even more difficult opening month. The Hurricanes play only three games in September, but they're against Florida State and Virginia Tech on the road and Georgia Tech at home; each is an ACC game.

Win those ? or at least go 2-1 ? and the Hurricanes will be a serious threat to win the ACC Coastal Division. That would set up a nationally significant game against Oklahoma on Oct. 3.

Starting 0-3 almost certainly would knock the Hurricanes out of the ACC race and could result in calls for coach Randy Shannon's ouster.

No team may face a more challenging month than Colorado in October. The Buffs play Kansas State, Texas and West Virginia on the road and Kansas and Missouri at home. All but K-State were bowl teams last season, and the four bowl teams in that stretch combined to win 39 games last season, Plus, Kansas, Texas and West Virginia seem likely to be preseason top-25 teams.

And for the second season in a row, November looms large for Stanford, which hasn't made a postseason appearance since 2001. The Cardinal's chance for a bowl bid could come down to the final month, when they face Oregon, USC, California and Notre Dame.

Last season, Stanford was one win away from bowl eligibility after a Nov. 1 victory over Washington State, but it closed the month with losses to Oregon, USC and Cal and stayed home for the holidays.

Similarly, Duke needed two wins in November to make its first bowl appearance since 1994, but went 0-5 in November. Louisville needed one win in November to reach a bowl; instead, the Cardinals went 0-5 for the month, which included a loss to Syracuse.

Going into last November, Minnesota was 7-1, ranked 17th and had a chance to set an NCAA record for the most improvement in one season. But the Golden Gophers went 0-4 that month, and a potentially outstanding season became only a good one.

Tulsa was unbeaten and aiming for a BCS bid until consecutive November losses to Arkansas and Houston.

Though November always is a key month, some teams' seasons are marred earlier. Despite closing last season with six consecutive victories, including a bowl win, Rutgers failed to finish in the top 25 because it was 1-3 in September. The win was over Football Championship Subdivision member Morgan State.

Long-suffering Temple has endured 18 consecutive losing seasons. The Owls were one win away from ending that dubious streak last season. But they had gone 0-4 in September, with three losses by four or fewer points.

It's not just bowl hopes that are dashed.

For example, Georgia was viewed as a strong national championship contender last season. The Bulldogs were 7-1 and ranked sixth in the country going into November.

But they went 2-2 in the final month of the regular season and were knocked out of the national championship picture. To make matters worse, the losses were to archrivals Florida and Georgia Tech. Georgia didn't even get bragging rights, much less a national title.

Oklahoma State was in a similar situation. The Cowboys were in the thick of the Big 12 South race in early November, but losses to Texas Tech and Oklahoma during the month ended their hopes.

Meanwhile, Missouri and USF were victimized in October. Missouri was unbeaten and ranked third in the nation before back-to-back losses in October. The Tigers never fully recovered and finished the season ranked 19th.

USF also came out of September unbeaten and was ranked 10th. But the Bulls went 1-3 in October and finished out of the final rankings. The Bulls didn't even show up in "also receiving votes."

The monthly grind

Here's a list of teams facing some of the most difficult months this upcoming college football season. An asterisk indicates teams that are likely to be in the preseason top 25.

SEPTEMBER
Team	Opponents	Combined '08 records
Miami	at Florida State* vs. Georgia Tech* at *Virginia Tech*	28-12
Oregon	at Boise State* vs. Purdue vs. Utah* vs. California*	38-13
South Carolina	at N.C. State at Georgia* vs. Florida Atlantic vs. Ole Miss*	32-20
OCTOBER
Team	Opponents	Combined '08 records
Colorado	at West Virginia* at Texas* vs. Kansas* at Kansas State vs. Missouri	44-21
USC	at California* at Notre Dame* vs. Oregon State at Oregon*	35-17
Minnesota	vs. Wisconsin vs. Purdue at Penn State* at Ohio State* vs. Michigan State	41-23
NOVEMBER
Team	Opponents	Combined '08 records
Stanford	vs. Oregon* at USC* vs. California* vs. Notre Dame*	38-14
Kansas	at Kansas State vs. Nebraska at Texas* vs. Missouri	36-16
Oklahoma	at Nebraska vs. Texas A&M at Texas Tech* vs. Oklahoma State*	33-18

The Edge

Each week, we'll match two teams to determine which has the edge in various categories. Got a matchup you want to see? Send it to olin@rivals.com and we'll work on it.

This week, it's Purdue vs. Washington State. (A Purdue edge was requested by dozens of Boilermakers fans who objected to USC being given "credit" for Neil Armstrong, who earned his Masters there, in a recent Edge).

Olin Buchanan is the senior college football writer for Rivals.com. He can be reached at olin@rivals.com.