April 9, 2009

Olin Buchanan
Rivals.com College Football Senior Writer

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During an illustrious coaching career, Darrell Royal claimed three national championships, 11 conference championships and 12 victories at Mississippi State.

His 12-8 record in Starkville pales in comparison to what Royal achieved at Texas, but history shows that was no small accomplishment. Since Royal's departure after the 1955 season, Mississippi State has had eight coaches. Only one ? Bob Tyler, who went 39-25-3 from 1973-78 ? managed a winning record.

But as we see in this week's mailbag, there are some indications that better fortune may await in the future.

Winner at a loser

How do you define success? If SEC championships are the definition, I'm not too optimistic. There are too many powerful teams with many more advantages in the SEC to think Mullen ? or any coach ? can bring a conference championship to Starkville.

But if a consistently bowl-eligible team capable of pulling off big upsets fits the criteria, then it is possible.

Mullen worked with a spectacular offense at Florida, and there is no doubt Mississippi State's offense is in dire need of an infusion of new blood. In each of the past five seasons, the Bulldogs have ranked 96th or worse nationally in scoring offense. Only once in that span did the Bulldogs average more than 20 points per game (21.46 in 2007).

Injuries, especially at quarterback, certainly have been a contributing factor in Mississippi State's recent offensive problems. Maybe Mullen will have better luck.

He's already had better luck in recruiting. Mullen's recruiting class at Mississippi State was ranked 23rd in the nation and included seven four-star rated prospects. None of the previous five recruiting classes at Mississippi State were ranked higher than 33rd.

Of course, that doesn't guarantee anything. But at least it shows a sign of life for a program that has managed just one winning record in the past eight seasons.

Irish not in spotlight?

The Fighting Irish can have a good season. With 10 offensive starters and six defensive returning starters, a tremendous receiving duo in Michael Floyd and Golden Tate, improving quarterback Jimmy Clausen and an advantageous schedule, eight, nine or even 10 victories isn't out the question.

But a "quiet" season is.

Notre Dame never does anything quietly. No matter how average the Irish might be, they always will be circled on opponents' schedules. A win over Michigan in the second game would have some proclaiming Notre Dame is back to elite status. A loss to Washington in the fifth game would have some calling for coach Charlie Weis' ouster.

Everything that happens at Notre Dame causes a reaction ? and even an overreaction. That's the price you pay for having movies made about your program, your own TV deal and a glorious history.

Notre Dame is a celebrity in college football. As such, it has to deal with the limelight like individual celebrities deal with the paparazzi. Irish fans can complain and be derided nationally for it or embrace the attention.

Gopher hopes

That schedule might be more difficult than you expect. Minnesota's non-conference opponents include California and Air Force. Ask Michigan State about California. Air Force isn't a pushover, either.

But I'll agree the Golden Gophers could continue to build on the progress made last season, the second season under coach Tim Brewster, when they improved by six victories.

A new stadium always creates a buzz, and Minnesota has been looking forward to football returning to campus for a few years. The Gophers have 17 returning starters and an excellent pass-catch combo with quarterback Adam Weber and wide receiver Eric Decker. They need to run better, though.

All in all, Minnesota projects to be better in '09, although I doubt the Gophers can win the Big Ten, even if it is "down" as you suggest. Ohio State will be strong and Minnesota must play in Columbus. The Gophers also have to travel to Penn State and Iowa, which again will be formidable.

But there definitely is potential for the Gophers to improve on last season's seven wins. Eight or nine victories would be a remarkable season, to me. Whether that qualifies as a "breakout season" depends on your definition.

Georgia under the radar?

Can Georgia ever be a surprise team? The Bulldogs are expected to win. They have posted at least eight victories in each of the eight seasons under coach Mark Richt and have had double-digit victory totals in six of those seasons.

The Bulldogs figure to be strong again. Sure, there are questions with quarterback Matthew Stafford and running back Knowshon Moreno departed for the NFL. But senior quarterback Joe Cox is experienced and Caleb King heads a list of talented tailbacks still on the roster, so those positions aren't as dire as some might think. In addition, tackle Trinton Sturdivant returns from injury to bolster an offensive line that was ravaged by injuries.

Georgia isn't considered a national champion contender this season; therefore, for Georgia to be a "surprise" team, it would have to upset Florida, win the SEC East and get into the national championship picture.

But how surprising would it be for Georgia to have a big year and beat Florida? As of today, I'd pick Florida to win, but it's rarely a great surprise when a good team beats its rival.

Of course, "surprise" can have a double meaning. It would come as a big surprise if Georgia struggled to its first losing season under Richt. I don't expect that to happen.

Going south

The Big 12 South race finished in a three-way tie with OU, Texas and Texas Tech, but OU advanced because of a Big 12 rule that uses the BCS standings to break a tie. Personally, I felt Texas should have been the team in the Big 12 title game last season and might have felt some sympathy then. But that's over and it doesn't carry into the next season.

Oklahoma benefited from a league rule, and Texas fans should accept that without complaint. There has been some discussion in the Big 12 about possibly changing the tiebreaker rule. Some conferences break a three-way tie by dropping the lowest-rated team in the BCS standings, then comparing the head-to-head result of the remaining teams. To me, that's a better system.

Texas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are potential preseason top-10 teams. Oklahoma State plays host to Texas, but travels to OU. The potential for another three-way tie exists.

Maybe some BCS voters would cast favorable ballots for Texas because of last season, but that might be unfair to Oklahoma State (or whatever team might be involved in a three-way tie). I believe most would not. Besides, the computer element of the BCS won't factor that in.

Every team in the conference will know the tiebreaker procedure (whatever it may be) going into the season. There should be no griping later. But hopefully the Big 12 South race ? or any race, for that matter ? won't come down to tiebreakers.

Second time around

Well, it's not going out on a limb to say Michigan will be better than last season's 3-9 debacle, but that's my response.

We've repeatedly seen teams make dramatic improvement in a coach's second year and the Wolverines will be in their second season under Rich Rodriguez. Keep in mind that West Virginia managed three wins in its first season under Rodriguez in 2001, then posted nine in 2002.

There are plenty of examples of second-year improvement in the Big Ten, too. Ohio State won the 2002 national championship in its second season under Jim Tressel. Last season, Michigan State won nine games in Mark Dantonio's second year. Minnesota made remarkable strides under Brewster in his second season.

Michigan players now have a year of experience in Rodriguez's system, and the Wolverines return four starters on the offensive line. Though quarterback Tate Forcier is a freshman, he's better-suited for Rodriguez's offense than last season's starter, Steven Threet, who has transferred. Upgrading the offense isn't the only issue for the Wolverines, though. The defense underachieved last season and must upgrade its play.

Overall, Michigan should be better. Don't expect a Big Ten championship, but a bowl trip is a legitimate goal.

Tough to break through

I like Scott. He was among my top five Heisman contenders last season until he was held to 35 yards by Florida and 61 by South Carolina in consecutive games.

He is a big, powerful back with breakaway speed and cannot be dismissed as a contender. Last season, Scott had six 100-yard games, had two runs cover more than 50 yards, gained 1,174 yards and scored 18 touchdowns. He could be even better in '09, especially if quarterback Jordan Jefferson fulfills some of promise he showed late last season and gives defenses something else to worry about in 2009.

But Scott still shapes up as a long shot with the return of last season's top three Heisman finishers ? quarterbacks Sam Bradford of Oklahoma, Colt McCoy of Texas and Tim Tebow of Florida. In addition, I'd rate California's Jahvid Best as the strongest contender among running backs.

Olin Buchanan is the senior college football writer for Rivals.com. He can be reached at olin@rivals.com.
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