September 30, 2008

David Fox
Rivals.com College Football Staff

The first BCS standings won't be released until Oct. 19, but we wanted a glimpse at what the championship game picture is so far.

At this very early stage, it appears that Oklahoma and Alabama are the favorites to face off for the national championship.

Both human polls are now available, and four of the six computer polls have been released.

Remember, the coaches' top 25 and Harris poll each count for a third of the BCS formula. The average of the six computer polls counts for the remaining third.

Oklahoma is No. 1 in both human polls and is in the top six in the computer rankings that have been released. The computers love Alabama; the Tide is No. 1 according to three of the computer rankings. The coaches appear to have some doubts about Bama. The Tide is No. 4 in the coaches' poll - its lowest ranking in the BCS components that have been released.

The voters in the USA Today coaches' top 25 aren't as sure about Alabama as the writers in The Associated Press poll (which does not count in the BCS). Only two of the 61 coaches voted Alabama No. 1. The Crimson Tide received first-place votes from 21 writers.

The Crimson Tide's win over Georgia moved it up six spots, to No. 4. The margin between No. 2 LSU and No. 3 Missouri is razor thin, with one point separating the two.

Oklahoma has a strong hold on the top spot with 57 first-place votes this week.

Oklahoma was an overwhelming No. 1 in the Harris poll, claiming a No. 1 vote on 102 of 114 ballots. If you're keeping track, the Sooners took the top spot on 90 percent of the human ballots.

Alabama had more first-place votes (seven) than LSU (three), but still is behind the Tigers by 36 points.

THE COMPUTER RANKINGS

Four of the six computer rankings are available, with Anderson & Hester and Wolfe yet to release their standings. Alabama fared better with the computers, landing the top spot in three of the four rankings.

Though Oklahoma is No. 1 in the human polls, the computers aren't as kind to the Sooners. OU is no higher than second in the four rankings made public. Oklahoma isn't in the top five in the Colley Matrix or the Massey ratings; the Sooners are sixth in both.

If the rankings look somewhat out of whack, don't be surprised. Many of these rankings differ quite a bit from the human polls (other than Richard Billingsley's, who says his rankings are designed to behave more "human" than his counterparts) because of the small sample size. Billingsley, Massey and Sagarin rank teams before the season, but Sagarin removes the preseason rankings before his rankings are used in the BCS.

David Fox is a national writer for Rivals.com. He can be reached at dfox@rivals.com.