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November 20, 2009

Olin Buchanan
Rivals.com College Football Senior Writer

How long does it take to grow roses in Arizona?

The Arizona Wildcats are hoping the answer is 32 years.

Thirty-two seasons have passed since Arizona joined the Pac-10 in 1978, and the Wildcats are the conference's only team that hasn't reached the Rose Bowl.

Arizona and Oregon - who play Saturday in Tucson - remain in control of their destinies in the race for the Pac-10 championship, which comes with a trip to the Rose Bowl.

Yet Oregon coach Chip Kelly refuses to discuss the Ducks' possible path to Pasadena.

"You can go through 27 million different things, but we're not talking about them," Kelly said. "The only thing that matters to us is Arizona.

"We're not about an end-goal operation. We're a process deal. If you want to get to the top of the mountain, you'd better concentrate on your next step or you're going to fall off that mountain."

But Rose Bowl discussions aren't taboo in Tucson. Perhaps that's because the Wildcats have been climbing - and falling off - the mountain for so long.

"We've been talking about it since last year," said Arizona senior free safety Cam Nelson, a three-year starter. "We felt like it was an opportunity for us. There is a lot of parity in the Pac-10 and you see it every week. Nobody is really dominating.

"It feels good to even be talking about a Rose Bowl. Or bowl bids, period, considering from where we've come from as a program."

The Wildcats have indeed come a long way just to be in the Rose Bowl discussion in mid-November. In its previous 31 seasons in the Pac-10, Arizona has finished tied for third or worse 26 times.

The Wildcats were second in 1998 but have finished no higher than fifth since. When Nelson arrived as a freshman in 2006, Arizona was coming off consecutive 3-8 records and eighth-place finishes in their first two seasons under coach Mike Stoops.

"Since I've been here, [the program] has changed a lot," Nelson said. "It was in a bad position, but they didn't build Rome in one day. It was just a lot of selfishness and lack of discipline. It wasn't the guys Coach Stoops had recruited; it was just what he walked into."

The Wildcats might be walking into a trap against Oregon, which boasts the Pac-10's highest-scoring offense. The Ducks average 37.1 points per game, largely because of the running of quarterback Jeremiah Masoli and tailback LaMichael James.

Arizona has allowed more than 30 points three times this season. But the Wildcats have surrendered just 44 points and three offensive touchdowns in their past three games.

"We went through a stretch where we gave up a lot of points, but we're getting our confidence back," Nelson said. "Our defense doesn't get a lot of credit because we don't have one big-name guy like [USC free safety] Taylor Mays or [UCLA linebacker] Reggie Carter. We're a no-name defense that's fast and quick."

Arizona's defense might earn itself a nickname if it can contain Oregon's offense. That's the primary task in hoping for an upset of the Ducks. And a win over Oregon would be a big step toward raising roses in a desert celebration.

"People in town are saying, 'Yeah, let's go the Rose Bowl,' " Nelson said. "In the past they hoped - or wished - we would win three or four games."

Who gets the edge?

Oregon rush offense vs. Arizona rush defense:
The Ducks rank sixth in the nation in rushing offense at 237 yards per game. Redshirt freshman LaMichael James has rushed for 1,193 yards and has gained at least 125 in each of the past five games. QB Jeremiah Masoli also is a running threat. RB LeGarrette Blount returned from suspension last week but did not play; could he see time? Arizona is 20th in run defense, allowing just 104.9 yards per game. But last week, the Wildcats gave up 159 yards to Cal's Shane Vereen.
Edge: Oregon

Oregon pass offense vs. Arizona pass defense:
Unfortunately, San Jose State isn't on Oregon's schedule because Masoli is awesome against San Francisco Bay-area teams (a combined 587 passing yards and six touchdowns against Cal and Stanford). He's just so-so against everyone else, as he has thrown for 1,581 yards and 11 TDs overall. TE Ed Dickson and WR Jeff Maehl each have more than 30 catches, but no other receiver has 20. The Ducks' line does a good job in pass protection. That's important against Arizona, which is second in the Pac-10 with 26 sacks. E Ricky Elmore leads with 8.5. The Wildcats are solid in pass coverage. They've allowed 12 touchdown passes and have 10 interceptions. They've allowed two touchdown passes total in the past three games. CB Trevin Wade is among the national leaders with 12 passes defended.
Edge: Arizona

Arizona rush offense vs. Oregon rush defense:
The Wildcats' running game struggled in last week's loss to Cal, but leading rusher Nic Grigsby, who has been slowed by injury, is expected to be back in the starting lineup. Grigsby has rushed for at least 75 yards in every game in which he's had at least 11 carries. The Wildcats have good depth, so having fresh backs available won't be an issue. Oregon's run defense has been inconsistent. Three Pac-10 opponents, including Cal, failed to reach 100 rushing yards against the Ducks. But Boise State, Purdue, USC and Stanford have had success. Stanford's Toby Gerhart gashed them for 223 yards. Then again, not many teams have running backs like Gerhart.
Edge: Oregon

Arizona pass offense vs. Oregon pass defense:
Since Nick Foles took over as the starting quarterback in the fourth game, the Wildcats have averaged nearly 280 passing yards. Foles has passed for more than 200 yards in five of six games. The one he didn't was against hapless Washington State, where the Wildcats took it relatively easy. Five Wildcats receivers have at least 24 catches, but drops have been a problem. Arizona has allowed just seven sacks. Overall, Oregon has been solid against the pass. But the Ducks have been burned for more than 250 passing yards three times, including 251 against Stanford two weeks ago. E Kenny Rowe leads a productive pass rush that has produced 27 sacks.
Edge: Arizona

Oregon special teams vs. Arizona special teams:
Oregon's special teams have produced touchdowns via kickoff and punt returns and a blocked punt. Kenjon Barner is a long-distance threat on kickoff and punt returns, and the Ducks are solid in coverage, too. K Morgan Flint has converted 13-of-15 attempts, with a long of 43 yards. P Jackson Rice averages 40.8 yards per attempt. Arizona also has big-play threats on its return teams in William Wright on punts and Travis Cobb and Keola Antolin on kickoffs. K Alex Zendejas has hit 13 field goals, but none longer than 37 yards. P Keenyn Crier averages 40.4 yards.
Edge: Oregon

Oregon coaching staff vs. Arizona coaching staff
After two seasons as Oregon's ultra-successful offensive coordinator, Chip Kelly was promoted to coach and has done an excellent job there, too. He kept the Ducks together after an opening loss to Boise State and the suspension of Blount. Under long-time defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti, the Ducks have allowed 21 or fewer points in seven games. Arizona coach Mike Stoops has taken longer to get the Wildcats into Rose Bowl contention. But in his sixth season, the Wildcats finally have to be taken seriously in the Pac-10 race. Their offense has made great strides under coordinator Sonny Dykes.
Edge: Oregon

X-FACTOR:
The Arizona Stadium field is 100 yards long, just like all the others. Even a planned "Red Out" by Wildcats fans shouldn't really affect Oregon. But Arizona is 5-0 at home this year. And the last time the Ducks visited Tucson, they lost starting quarterback Dennis Dixon and were knocked out of the national championship race with a 34-24 loss in 2007. They also lost their quarteback on their trip to Tucson in 2005.

OREGON WILL WIN IF:
Getting the running game going is vital. Another big game out of James, who has averaged just over 150 yards in the past five games, would take pressure off a passing attack that can be iffy. Arizona's passing game is solid, so getting consistent pressure on Foles is a priority.

ARIZONA WILL WIN IF:
Quarterback protection and running back production are key. If the Wildcats can run effectively, opportunities for Foles in the passing game should open up. But Arizona's chances primarily hinge on its ability to slow Oregon's running game.

EXPERT PICKS Olin Buchanan: Oregon 27, Arizona 21
Tom Dienhart: Arizona 33, Oregon 30
David Fox: Oregon 31, Arizona 24
Mike Huguenin: Oregon 33, Arizona 24
Steve Megargee: Oregon 31, Arizona 21

Olin Buchanan is the senior college football writer for Rivals.com. He can be reached at olin@rivals.com.




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