November 19, 2009

Mike Huguenin
Rivals.com College Football Editor

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But fans need to start paying attention to the likes of Middle Tennessee, Louisiana-Monroe, Louisiana-Lafayette, Northern Illinois, Kent State and Ohio University because it seems extremely likely that three or four of those teams will be bowl-bound this season.

The ACC, Big Ten, Mountain West and Pac-10 could have trouble filling all their bowl slots, and in the quest to fill those open spots, bowl officials are going to have to turn to non-affiliated teams with winning records (not 6-6 marks). Those teams are going to come from the MAC and Sun Belt.

The Sun Belt has one tie-in, with the New Orleans Bowl. Troy looks as if it will win the league for the fourth season in a row. But Middle Tennessee (7-3), Louisiana-Monroe (6-4) and Louisiana-Lafayette (5-5) still have a lot at stake. MTSU has a shot at finishing 9-3, but regardless of how the Blue Raiders finish, they are in great shape for a bid because they already have seven wins. ULM and ULL - which play each other Saturday - also would have legitimate chances at a bid if they can get to seven wins.

The Mid-American has three tie-ins, with the Little Caesars Pizza (formerly the Motor City), International and GMAC bowls. The two division champs are guaranteed bowl spots. Right now, Central Michigan (8-2) in the West and Temple (8-2) in the East are in the driver's seat in their respective divisions. Ohio U. (7-3), Northern Illinois (7-3), Bowling Green (5-5) and Kent State (5-5) still have legit division title hopes, with Ohio and NIU - which play Saturday - also in good shape for the league's third bowl bid. One of those plus BG and Kent State - assuming each can get to seven wins - also will be in the mix for any "leftover" bowl slots.

In the Rivals.com bowl projections this week, we had spots open in the EagleBank (an ACC slot), GMAC (ACC), Little Caesars Pizza (Big Ten) and Humanitarian (Mountain West) bowls.

One team to keep an eye on is UCLA (5-5), which has games remaining against Arizona State and USC. With the Pac-10 almost certainly getting only one BCS bid this season, the league has enough bowl-eligible teams to fill their contractually obligated slots. But if the Bruins become bowl eligible and only three non-affiliated teams finish with at least seven wins, the Bruins could slide into an open slot. In our projections this week, they are the only bowl-eligible team from a Big Six league that wouldn't be contractually obligated to fill a slot.

KEY MATCHUP: Connecticut rush offense vs. Notre Dame rush defense. Seemingly everyone is assuming that Notre Dame (6-4) will be going for its eighth victory when it ends its regular season against Stanford next weekend. But UConn's running game poses a big threat to the Irish. Notre Dame is allowing 153.2 rushing yards per game, which ranks 72nd nationally. But in their four losses, the Irish are surrendering 213 rushing yards per game. UConn runs the ball well with Jordan Todman and Andre Dixon, and the Huskies will be looking to control the clock with their rushing attack Saturday. If the Huskies run well, it once again means Irish QB Jimmy Clausen will have to be sharp if the Irish are to prevail.

PLAYER ON THE SPOT: UAB QB Joe Webb. The Blazers need one more win for bowl eligibility; they play at East Carolina on Saturday, then finish up next Saturday with a home game against UCF. Bad news for UAB is that ECU leads Conference USA in total defense and UCF is No. 2. Webb's performances will go a long way toward determining whether the Blazers can get that needed win. He has rushed for 10 TDs and thrown 16 TD passes this season. In the Blazers' five losses, though, he has run for three TDs and thrown just four scoring passes. In addition, all six of his interceptions have come in the losses. If Webb plays well, UAB has a shot at a win.

NUMBERS GAME: Nevada RB Luke Lippincott needs 134 rushing yards in the Wolf Pack's final two games to reach 1,000 for the season. If he reaches the plateau, Nevada would become the first team in NCAA history with three 1,000-yard rushers in the same season. RB Vai Taua (1,059 yards) and QB Colin Kaepernick (1,015) already have reached the milestone. Kaepernick, Lippincott and Taua have combined for 29 rushing TDs.

WHAT THEY'RE SAYING:

"I have never been in a game where I've invited a team to run the ball, but this may be it." - Memphis coach Tommy West, on Houston's prolific passing attack

"I want people to become upset around here when we go 8-5. I think we are getting closer to that." - TCU coach Gary Patterson

"I look at it like a wounded animal, to be honest with you. Their back is against the wall, and I expect them to fight with everything they've got." - Southern Miss coach Larry Fedora, on facing a 4-6 Tulsa team that must win out to become bowl eligible

"We have stuck to our plan and that plan is starting to come together the way I envisioned it. Obviously, I'd like to have a few more wins to bring some validity to the plan." - New Mexico coach Mike Locksley, on how the season has progressed

"I'm happy that they won because I like Coach [David] Bailiff. I don't think it has anything to do with us. I hope they went out and partied every night and will look past us. But I don't think that's the case." - UTEP coach Mike Price, whose team plays Rice this week. Rice won its first game last week

ETC.: San Jose State coach Dick Tomey, 71, announced Monday that he would retire at the end of the season. He is in his fifth season at the school. ... UNLV fired coach Mike Sanford, who is in his fifth season and never has had a winning record. He will finish out the season. Miami University played Buffalo on Wednesday night. It was the RedHawks' 12th game, making them the first team in the nation to complete their season. ... Marshall's Cody Slate, one of the best tight ends in the nation, will miss the rest of the season with a torn knee ligament. He was the Herd's leading receiver, with 50 catches. ... Navy beat FCS member Delaware last week, the 11th consecutive weekend the Midshipmen played. They are off this week, play at Hawaii on Nov. 28, take another week off, then finish the regular season Dec. 12 against Army. ... Louisiana-Lafayette takes a 5-5 record into its game with Louisiana-Monroe, and the Ragin' Cajuns finish up with a game at Troy next week. ULL hasn't had more than six victories in a season since 1993. ... TCU is 10-0 for only the second time since its 1938 national championship season and the fourth time in its history (1935, 1938, 2005). ... Utah puts its 16-game home winning streak on the line against San Diego State on Saturday. ... Troy can clinch its fourth consecutive Sun Belt title by beating visiting Florida Atlantic on Saturday. ... Saturday's game against Kent State will be the 1,000th football game in Temple history. Kent State will be going for its third road victory of the season, which hasn't happened for the Golden Flashes since 1977. ... BYU leads the nation in third-down conversion percentage at 59.3 (74-of-127). ... Northern Illinois starting RB Chad Spann has an injured shoulder and may miss Saturday's key game against Ohio U. He will be a game-time decision. Spann is fifth in the nation with 16 rushing touchdowns and is a major reason NIU has won four in a row for the first time since 2006. ... TCU has outscored its past five opponents 233-53. ... Houston leads the nation with 17 fumble recoveries. ... Among the schools outside the Big Six conferences, Utah and Navy each have a nation's-leading 18 wins against Big Six foes since the "BCS era" began in 1998. ... Idaho and SMU are tied for the nation's best turnaround. The Vandals were 2-10 last season and have seven wins this season. SMU won once last season and has six wins this season.

Mike Huguenin is the college sports editor for Rivals.com. He can be reached at mhuguenin@rivals.com.