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November 18, 2009

Here's how much things have changed since the start of the season: There are two can't-miss games in the Pac-10 this weekend - and neither involves USC.

Teams such as Oregon, Stanford and Arizona have made the Pac-10 one of the most intriguing top-to-bottom conferences in the country this season. Even California, which flopped during a two-week stretch against Oregon and USC, looks to have recovered in time for Saturday's "Big Game" against Stanford.

But some things haven't changed since the beginning of the season. SEC division champions Florida and Alabama are playing opponents - Florida International and Chattanooga, respectively - better-suited for a September warm-up than the mid-November stretch run.

Elsewhere in the SEC, LSU's game at Ole Miss has slipped to second-tier status as the teams vie for bowl positioning rather than the SEC West title. If only those two teams were in the Big 12 North, where flawed teams Nebraska and Kansas State are two wins away from a BCS bid.

Here's a breakdown of the top five games to watch on Saturday, plus a look at the nationally televised games on Thursday and Friday.

All times Eastern.

VIEWERS' GUIDE
SATURDAY

OHIO STATE AT MICHIGAN
When: noon, ABC
Broadcasters: Sean McDonough play-by-play, Matt Millen analyst
Line: Ohio State by 12.5
Why you should watch: This rivalry has been many things in its history, but rarely has it been this inconsequential. Ohio State clinched a share of the Big Ten title and the league's BCS bid last week by defeating Iowa. Michigan needs to win this game to become bowl eligible. Ohio State has won seven of the past eight in this series under Jim Tressel. The Wolverines have lost six of seven overall and haven't beaten an FBS team since September. The defense has allowed at least 30 points in each of the past five Big Ten games. Freshman quarterback Tate Forcier acknowledged an "argument" with coach Rich Rodriguez before last week's loss to Wisconsin. The school released details of an internal audit Monday that showed that the program failed to file forms tracking how much time players spent on football during the 2008 season and the offseason. Another loss to Ohio State could add to what is already going to be a difficult offseason in Ann Arbor.

LSU AT OLE MISS
When: 3:30 p.m., CBS
Broadcasters: Verne Lundquist play-by-play, Gary Danielson analyst
Line: Ole Miss by 4
Why you should watch: Ole Miss and LSU were expected to contend for the SEC West crown and possibly the national title. With those hopes dashed, which team will finish the season on a stronger note? LSU's only losses have come to Florida and Alabama. Ole Miss stumbled earlier in the season, but the Rebels showed they aren't going to fold completely by routing Tennessee last week. Ole Miss has recently learned what many fans suspected - it has one of the best playmakers in the SEC in Dexter McCluster. In the past three SEC games, McCluster has 787 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns on 84 touches compared to 33 touches and 177 yards and no touchdowns in his first three SEC games.

CALIFORNIA AT STANFORD
When: 7:30 p.m., Versus
Broadcasters: Ron Thulin play-by-play, Kelly Stouffer analyst
Line: Stanford by 7
Why you should watch: Can you imagine a better time to be on the Stanford campus than in the past two weeks? The Cardinal beat top-10 teams USC and Oregon back-to-back, and now have a chance to defeat archrival Cal. The Cardinal's only win in their past seven meetings against the Golden Bears came in 2007. Cal has won four of its past five, with the only loss coming to Oregon State when running back Jahvid Best was carted off the field. Shane Vereen (30 carries, 159 yards, a touchdown against Arizona last week) has proven he can handle the load. Stanford running back Toby Gerhart has rushed for 649 yards and nine touchdowns in the past four games, but Cal will be the first top-20 rush defense he has faced since the Oct. 10 game against Oregon State - which held him to 96 yards.

KANSAS STATE AT NEBRASKA
When: 7:45 p.m., ESPN
Broadcasters: Brad Nessler play-by-play, Todd Blackledge analyst
Line: Nebraska by 16
Why you should watch: In a flashback to the late 1990s, Kansas State and Nebraska are fighting for supremacy in the Big 12 North. It's certainly an accomplishment for Kansas State to be within striking distance of the Big 12 championship, but the Wildcats also need this win just to become bowl eligible. The Wildcats have two offensive threats in running back Daniel Thomas, the Big 12's leading rusher, and wide receiver Brandon Banks. But Nebraska counters with a top-10 defense. The Huskers lead the Big 12 in scoring defense, too.

OREGON AT ARIZONA
When: 8 p.m., ABC regional/ESPN GamePlan
Broadcasters: Brent Musburger play-by-play, Kirk Herbstreit analyst
Line: Oregon by 6
Why you should watch: Despite Arizona's 24-16 loss to Cal last week, the Wildcats still control their destiny in their hunt for their first Rose Bowl appearance. The Ducks lead the Pac-10, but Arizona has beaten Stanford and Oregon State, which means you shouldn't doubt Arizona's ability to pull the upset. The Wildcats have a knack for beating top teams in November. Oregon was a victim in 2007, when Heisman front-runner Dennis Dixon went down with a torn ACL in a 34-24 loss. This season, Arizona isn't elite in any one category, but the Wildcats do a little bit of everything well; they're in the top three in the Pac-10 in six of eight major offensive and defensive statistical categories. Starting running back Nic Grigsby is expected to be back from a shoulder injury this week. As for Oregon, redshirt freshman running back LaMichael James has topped 150 yards in five of his past eight games.

David Fox is a national writer for Rivals.com. He can be reached at dfox@rivals.com.




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