November 12, 2009

Olin Buchanan
Rivals.com College Football Senior Writer

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Usually, that's said by the coach playing against the Trojans, not leading them.

Yet, there was Pete Carroll, raving about the high-scoring Stanford offense that USC must find a way to contain Saturday or risk falling out of contention for a BCS bowl. USC (7-2) hasn't lost three games in a season since 2001 and never has lost in November under Carroll, but this season, that seems possible.

Carroll even made it sound probable as he praised Stanford running back Toby Gerhart, quarterback Andrew Luck and an offense that has scored at least 33 points in each of the past three games.

"Nobody has slowed them down," Carroll said. "Gerhart is a huge element to deal with, and their passing game is throwing all over the place. They've been scoring the last three weeks as easily as you can score."

Of course, coaches commonly exaggerate the strength of the next opponent, no matter how good (or bad) that team really is. It's called "sandbagging."

But there is no reason to accuse Carroll of that. Stanford is good. And USC is vulnerable.

That much has been apparent lately. Two weeks ago, the Trojans were blitzed 47-20 by Oregon, the most one-sided loss in Carroll's tenure. Then, they held on to beat offense-challenged Arizona State 14-9. The Trojans needed an interception return for a touchdown to beat the Sun Devils.

USC's offensive line has been inconsistent. Freshman quarterback Matt Barkley passed for just 112 yards against Arizona State. Now, wide receiver Damian Williams - USC's best offensive player - has a high ankle sprain and may not be able to play Saturday. The same goes for tight end Anthony McCoy. The Trojans' defense ranks 38th in the nation.

That's a lot to overcome in the powerful Pac-10, the strongest conference in the country this season. Though it's sure to create great anger and debate in the SEC, computer expert Jeff Sagarin - whose compilations help determine the BCS standings - has rated the Pac-10 as the strongest conference in America.

Carroll doesn't disagree.

"You play well-equipped teams with loaded offenses and a good defense every weekend," he said. "We've looked at it as the ultimate challenge - just getting through until the next week. That hasn't changed at all. There is no room for error. The margins have really narrowed."

USC closes its regular season with games against Stanford, archrival UCLA and Arizona, which is in contention to win its first Pac-10 championship.

Of course, despite their recent struggles, few would be surprised if the Trojans won all three. But that cannot be taken for granted this season, especially if Carroll is unsure they can stop Stanford.

"We've had seven games where we really like our defense and two games we didn't," he said. "We got out of whack and didn't play worth a darn, but all in all, we have a pretty good group.

"We'll just do the best we can, struggle our way through it and hope to slow them down some."

KEY MATCHUP: Stanford offense vs. USC defense. USC's defense was uncharacteristically vulnerable in October. Notre Dame, Oregon State and Oregon combined for 110 points against USC. That's 17 more than the Trojans allowed in the entire 2008 regular season. Aside from that three-game stretch, USC has held opponents to 16 or fewer points. The Trojans face one of their toughest tests of the season against Stanford on Saturday. The Cardinal rank second in the Pac-10 and 18th in the nation in scoring, RB Toby Gerhart is second in the nation in rushing and QB Andrew Luck is ninth in passing efficiency.

PLAYER ON THE SPOT: Arizona RB Keola Antolin. The Wildcats need a productive running game against California to ease the pressure on QB Nick Foles, who is playing well. Starting TB Nic Grigsby may not be available because of a shoulder injury, which puts the onus on Antolin. Cal allows an average of 107 rushing yards to rank second in the Pac-10 in rushing defense.

NUMBERS GAME: How bad has it gotten at Washington State? The Cougars have been outscored 145-3 in the first quarter. That's right, not a first-quarter touchdown all season. In fact, the Cougars haven't managed a first-quarter touchdown since Dwight Tardy scored on an 18-yard run against Arizona last Nov. 8. That's a span of 12 games. The Cougars have been scoreless at halftime in four games this season.

WHAT THEY'RE SAYING:

"This will define our season, these four games. Every game is going to be really tough. This will show what kind of team we really are." - Arizona QB Nick Foles

"The No. 1 concern is his health and his well-being. If he doesn't play again this year, so be it. We haven't even discussed that and will not discuss it until probably much later on." - California coach Jeff Tedford, on RB Jahvid Best, who suffered a concussion against Oregon State last week

"LeGarrette still has to be brought up to speed. It's not like he's going to come out and carry the ball 25 times on Saturday night. I expect him to play hard and give us great effort. That's all I expect from any of our players." - Oregon coach Chip Kelly, on reinstated RB LeGarrette Blount

ETC.: Arizona DE Brooks Reed has missed three games with a high ankle sprain, but he played in a backup role last week and is expected to start Saturday against Cal. ... Arizona State TE Dan Knapp suffered a concussion in last week's game, but is expected to play against Oregon. Sun Devils DB Terell Carr is suspended indefinitely for off-field issues and will not play this week. Meanwhile, QB Danny Sullivan is limited because of a biceps injury. Coach Dennis Erickson hasn't yet decided if Sullivan or true freshman Brock Osweiler will start against the Ducks. ... Cal G Matt Summers-Gavin may be ready to return to action. He hasn't played since injuring a shoulder against Washington State on Oct. 24. One more victory would clinch a seventh consecutive winning season for Cal, which would be a school record. ... Oregon S T.J. Ward was slowed by an ankle injury much of the season, but he has started the past two games and led the Ducks in tackles in both. In those two games, against USC and Stanford, Oregon rushed for 627 yards and had 1,183 yards in total offense. ... Oregon State has averaged 460.8 yards in total offense in its past four games. Beavers QB Sean Canfield leads the Pac-10 in passing by almost 20 yards per game. He is completing 69.6 percent of his attempts and has thrown just one interception in his last 156 attempts. ... Stanford RB Toby Gerhart has increased his rushing total to 1,217 yards - which surpasses his single-season school record. ... UCLA freshman G Stanley Hasiak has left the team for an indefinite period to deal with personal issues. In addition, Bruins G Ryan Taylor has a sprained foot and isn't expected to play on Saturday. ... USC freshman Devon Kennard might start at strongside linebacker against Stanford. He would replace Michael Morgan, who has a sprained wrist. Trojans RB Joe McKnight could see some action at WR because leading receiver Damian Williams has a high ankle sprain and his availability is uncertain. ... Washington LB E.J. Savannah has been sidelined after surgery on a broken thumb, but he might play Saturday. Huskies OT Ben Ossai did not start last week as punishment for breaking team rules. It's unclear whether he or Drew Schaefer will start this week. ... Washington State QB Jeff Tuel is listed as questionable with a knee injury. Cougars junior G Brian Danaher and sophomore S Eric Block may not play again this season and their careers may be finished. Danaher has had repeated concussions and Block has ulcerative colitis.

Olin Buchanan is the senior college football writer for Rivals.com. He can be reached at olin@rivals.com.