November 5, 2009

Mike Huguenin
Rivals.com College Football Editor

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Here's a team-by-team look:

Alabama: If it gets to the league championship game, a BCS bid awaits. The question - for the second season in a row - is whether it would be in the national title game or in the Sugar Bowl. The projection: BCS bowl.

Arkansas: The Hogs need two more wins to become bowl eligible. An 8-4 mark likely would get them to the Cotton Bowl, though a 7-5 or 6-6 finish seems much more likely. A 7-5 record might be enough for the Chick-fil-A. A 6-6 record means the Liberty, Independence or Papajohns.com. The projection: Liberty.

Auburn: The Tigers already are bowl eligible, and if they can get to 8-4, the Cotton Bowl is a distinct possibility. The Outback is another possibility. A 7-5 mark could mean the Chick-fil-A or even the Outback, depending on what happens to some other teams. The projection: Cotton.

Florida: The Gators already have clinched the SEC East title. If - as expected - they get to the conference title game unscathed, they will have a BCS bid locked up. In that scenario, it would either be the national title game or a spot in the Sugar Bowl. The projection: BCS bowl.

Georgia: The disappointing Bulldogs still need two more wins to become bowl eligible. The potential exists for an 8-4 finish, and that might be enough to get them to the Capital One, Outback or Chick-fil-A. More likely, though, is a 7-5 or 6-6 finish, and that would mean the Music City might be the best they can hope for. The projection: Independence.

Kentucky: As with Georgia, the Wildcats still need two more victories to become bowl eligible. They seem destined for a lower-tier bowl, most likely the Independence or Papajohns.com. The projection: Papajohns.com.

LSU: Right now, it's hard to see the Tigers falling below the Capital One. A 9-3 record would get them to Orlando. An 8-4 mark, though, could mean the Outback or Cotton. The projection: Capital One.

Ole Miss: The Rebels have been the SEC's biggest disappointment. Because it has two games against FCS opponents, Ole Miss needs to get to seven wins to become bowl eligible. A 9-3 or 8-4 record could get them a Cotton or Outback appearance, though the Cotton seems unlikely because they were there last season. The Chick-fil-A also would be in play at 8-4. A 7-5 finish would make them attractive to the Liberty Bowl, given the closeness of the campus to Memphis. The Independence would be another possibility. The projection: Outback.

Mississippi State: The Bulldogs still need two more wins to become bowl eligible and, frankly, they don't seem likely to get those wins. If they do, though, the Liberty, Independence or Papajohns.com would love to have them because they will sell tickets to those games. The projection: No bowl.

South Carolina: If the Gamecocks can finish 8-4, the Outback or Chick-fil-A are possibilities. Those two games also could be the Gamecocks' landing spot with a 7-5 finish, depending on what other teams do. More likely, though, a 7-5 record would mean the Music City, Liberty or Independence bowls. The projection: Chick-fil-A.

Tennessee: If the Vols finish 8-4, the Cotton and Outback are possibilities. The Outback also would be a possibility at 7-5. A 6-6 record likely would mean the Liberty or Music City, two in-state games that would benefit from the Vols' presence. The projection: Music City.

PLAYER ON THE SPOT: South Carolina QB Stephen Garcia. It has become obvious that Steve Spurrier cannot count on his rushing attack to put up enough yards for the Gamecocks to win. That puts the game in Garcia's hands. He has thrown for 300 yards in back-to-back games and has three 300-yard games this season. Good news for the Gamecocks is that Arkansas' secondary can charitably be called "bad." If South Carolina gets a big game from Garcia, the Gamecocks could leave Fayetteville with a victory. If he struggles, the Gamecocks almost assuredly have trouble scoring and way too much pressure is put on the defense.

KEY MATCHUP: LSU rush offense vs. Alabama rush defense. LSU won't win if QB Jordan Jefferson has to win the game with his arm. That means it's vital for the Tigers to run effectively with Charles Scott and others. Can the Tigers get enough of a push up front? Throw out a game against hapless Vanderbilt, and LSU has averaged 93.5 rushing yards in four league games. Rushing for 93.5 yards against Alabama won't get it done. The Tide, meanwhile, have allowed an average of just 78.2 rushing yards in five SEC games.

NUMBERS GAME: Chew on this for a minute. LSU leads the league in punt returns, averaging 17.3 yards per attempt. But the Tigers are last in the league in kickoff returns, averaging just 17.7 yards per attempt.

WHAT THEY'RE SAYING:

"I worry every week about the mental frame of mind and focus and mental preparation. With that loss [to Mississippi State], we go from a team that could have done something that maybe the previous teams weren't able to do - win more games and climb up the SEC ladder - to maybe a team that might break that bowl streak." -Kentucky coach Rich Brooks, on what last week's loss might mean

"Well, I got away, but I also took my computer and had lots of tape to watch. That's what I did for most of the time. It rained for two days, so it was a good time. I really watched some football games and some baseball games on Saturday and really sort of enjoyed seeing what everybody in the world goes through on Saturday, rather than what I go through, which is to watch a whole bunch of games, flip back and forth on the channels, have three or four games going at the same time, and a baseball game, and my wife yelling at me the whole time because we're not watching what she wants to watch." - Alabama coach Nick Saban, on how he spent his off week

"You can coach somewhere else if you want to go chill. As a player, there are plenty of places you can go where, win, lose or draw, you can chill in front of a half-empty stadium. At Florida, you have to play at a very high level, and that started back in the '90s. That stadium out there is a pretty imposing place. To walk in here at Florida, you have to be good and be on edge." - Florida coach Urban Meyer, on the high expectations that surrounded his team

"I can't do that. I can't do that to our seniors. We tell our guys to finish the drill. We tell our guys to never quit. ... If we made a move and say we are playing for next year, in my mind, we've given up on the season, we've quit. We don't quit at Georgia, and we don't teach our guys to quit." - Georgia coach Mark Richt, on whether he and his coaches have decided to start worrying about next season

"We still have a lot of coaching to do with these players and we still believe our big seasons are a little bit down the road." - South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier

ETC.: Florida senior LB Brandon Spikes was suspended for the first half of Saturday's game against Vanderbilt by coach Urban Meyer for reaching into the face mask of Georgia RB Washaun Ealey during Florida's win over the Bulldogs on Saturday. Meyer said the decision was discussed with defensive coordinator Charlie Strong and SEC commissioner Mike Slive and that each agreed the suspension was appropriate. On Wednesday, Spikes requested to sit out the entire game, saying he did not want his situation to be a distraction for the team and Meyer obliged. One person who disagreed was Ealey, who said he doesn't believe Spikes should have been suspended at all. "That's their decision," Ealey said. "He shouldn't, I think, get suspended at all. We were just out there playing football." ... Since 1990, Tennessee is 65-11 in the month of November, but seven of those losses have come since 2004. ... Vanderbilt starting QB Larry Smith will miss the rest of the season with a partially torn left hamstring. Senior Mackenzi Adams will take Smith's place. ... Georgia WR A.J. Green will miss Saturday's game against Tennessee Tech with a bruised lung but should be back for the Bulldogs' Nov. 14 game against Auburn. True freshman Rantavious Wooten and redshirt freshman Tavarres King are the likely starters Saturday. ... LSU has not lost in Tuscaloosa since 1999, when the Crimson Tide prevailed 23-17. Alabama's 27-21 overtime victory in Baton Rouge last season snapped a five-game losing streak to LSU. ... Florida QB Tim Tebow scored two rushing touchdowns last week to break Herschel Walker's SEC career record in that category. Tebow has 51 in four seasons; Walker had 49 in three, though bowl games did not count during Walker's playing days. Tebow has 614 career carries, while Walker had 994. ... Vanderbilt freshman TB Warren Norman has tied an SEC single-season record with three kickoff returns for touchdowns. ... There have been 32 conference games played this season in the SEC. Eight of them have been decided by at least 21 points; seven have been decided by between one and five points and another seven by between six and 10. The average victory margin has been 13.5 points. ... Tennessee has outscored foes 76-16 in the fourth quarter this season, the highest point differential in the league.

Mike Huguenin is the college sports editor for Rivals.com. He can be reached at mhuguenin@rivals.com.