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October 30, 2009

Olin Buchanan
Rivals.com College Football Senior Writer

In Eugene, Ore., rains falls a lot. The average annual accumulation is 51 inches. Rain falls so much that the locals claim they don't tan in the summer, they rust.

Yet there isn't really a preoccupation with precipitation. They accept it. Sometimes, they even welcome it.

But Eugene residents are hoping for a break in the reign when No. 10 Oregon (6-1) faces No. 4 USC (6-1) in a pivotal Pac-10 game Saturday in Autzen Stadium.

USC has won or shared seven consecutive Pac-10 championships and is the only Pac-10 team to appear in the Rose Bowl in the past five seasons. That could change if the Ducks pull off an upset.

A victory would give Oregon a two-game lead and the tiebreaker advantage over USC in the Pac-10 standings with four games remaining.

The forecast calls for rain - Duck weather. And the Autzen Stadium crowd, the rowdiest on the West Coast, will foster a most hostile environment. Of course, a hostile environment isn't anything new to the Trojans, who already have played four road games this season.

"We definitely have been put to the test with Ohio State and bunch of other tough teams," USC defensive end Wes Horton said. "I think if everyone just stays focused, doesn't buy into the crowd or buy into the other factors and we just play our game, it isn't really a big deal."

But the Ducks are a big deal. They have much more to offer than just a noisy crowd.

Their running game has produced more than 200 yards in each of the past five games. Redshirt freshman LaMichael James has emerged as one of the country's most productive running backs with 735 yards. Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli also is a dangerous rushing threat, though he has been inconsistent as a passer.

Behind James and Masoli, Oregon is second in the Pac-10 in scoring offense at 34 points per game.

"[Masoli] has always been an effective player in their offense," USC coach Pete Carroll said. "When he's able to maintain a high percentage of completions to go to along with all the problems he presents running the offense, that's when their offense is really operating. You hope to contain him and keep him from getting loose and running wild out there."

USC's defense, which allows 15.1 points per game, won't be intimidated. Last season, the Trojans held Oregon to one touchdown in a 44-10 rout in Los Angeles.

But the Trojans have to be somewhat concerned. They've allowed 63 points in the past two games, with 47 of those points surrendered in the second half.

"We've got the potential to be the best," USC free safety Taylor Mays said. "We've been the best sometimes, and we haven't been as good other times. We just have to be more consistent. We've got to bring it every time we step on the field, bring it for four quarters every game."

Oregon's defense has been playing well for four quarters. In fact, the Ducks have allowed just three touchdowns in the past 17 quarters and fewer than 20 points in each of the past four games. The Ducks haven't faced an offense as dangerous as USC's, though.

True freshman Matt Barkley is maturing into an effective quarterback, throwing for more than 200 yards in four consecutive games. Wide receiver Damian Williams is a big-play threat who is averaging 15.4 yards on 34 catches.

Speedy Joe McKnight and powerful Allen Bradford lead a deep USC running game that averages 198.3 yards per game and has impressed Oregon coach Chip Kelly.

"They've got thunder and lightning," Kelly said. "With their stable of running backs, they've got thunder and lightning, hurricane and typhoon. You name the storm, they've got it."

Thunder and lightning - that's a combination that works in the rain, too.

Who gets the edge?

Oregon rush offense vs. USC rush defense:
RB LaMichael James and Jeremiah Masoli have combined to rush for more than 1,000 yards. James has exceeded 100 rushing yards in four of the Ducks' past five games, and Oregon has rushed for more than 200 yards in five consecutive games to climb to 14th in the country in rushing offense. USC has allowed just one running back to exceed 100 rushing yards all season, but that was last week, when Oregon State's Jacquizz Rodgers had 113. The Trojans rank fifth in the nation in rushing defense. FS Taylor Mays leads USC with 49 tackles, one more than LB Chris Galippo.
Edge: Oregon.

Oregon pass offense vs. USC pass defense:
Masoli's passing typically is mediocre at best. He has passed for fewer than 170 yards in five of the six games he has played. Although Oregon statistically is among the worst passing teams in the country, Masoli is effective enough to burn opponents that overlook the passing game. He threw for 253 yard and three touchdowns against Cal. TE Ed Dickson has 27 catches and WR Jeff Maehl has 21. No other receiver has more than 10 catches. WR Jamere Holland has blazing speed, but unreliable hands. Although USC's Taylor is an All-American, the secondary has been inconsistent. The Trojans allow an average of 211.9 passing yards per game and have managed only three interceptions. On the other hand, they have a tremendous pass rush. E Everson Griffen has eight sacks and Nick Perry seven for the Trojans, who lead the nation with 29. Oregon has allowed 11 sacks.
Edge: USC.

USC rush offense vs. Oregon rush defense:
Junior Joe McKnight and Allen Bradford provide the Trojans with a balance of speed and power. McKnight leads USC with 617 rushing yards. Bradford has 374, but 147 came last week against Oregon State. The Trojans moved Butch Lewis into the starting lineup at guard and shifted Jeff Byers to center in place of Kristofer O'Dowd, who has been slowed by a knee injury. Oregon allows just 118.9 rushing yards per game; the Ducks have been even stingier against Pac-10 competition (94.8). LB Casey Matthews and CB Javes Lewis lead the Ducks with 44 tackles each.
Edge: USC.

USC pass offense vs. Oregon pass defense:
True freshman QB Matt Barkley keeps progressing. He has thrown for more than 200 yards in four consecutive games and has six touchdown passes in that span. But he has four interceptions, too. He might be without TE Anthony McCoy, whose status is uncertain because of a sprained ankle. WR Damian Williams is one of the best in the country. McKnight is an effective receiver out of the backfield. Barkley also gets solid protection. He'll need it against Oregon, which has 22 sacks. DE Kenny Rowe leads with seven. The Ducks need pressure to help out a secondary that has been hit hard by injuries. But Oregon still has 10 interceptions.
Edge: USC

Oregon special teams vs. USC special teams:
The Ducks miss Walter Thurmond III on punt returns, but Kenjon Barner has shown the ability to go the distance on kickoffs. K Morgan Flint has gone 6-for-8 on field-goal attempts and P Jackson Rice has eight kicks that have covered at least 50 yards - and 14 killed inside the 20. The Ducks have scored special teams touchdowns in the past two games. USC's Williams ranks fourth in the nation in punt returns with an 18-yard average and has brought two back for touchdowns. K Jordan Congdon has limited range.
Edge: Oregon

Oregon coaching staff vs. USC coaching staff:
In two years as the Ducks' offensive coordinator, Chip Kelly supervised units that were among the highest scoring in the nation. He has been just as impressive in his first year as coach. He deserves credit for keeping the Ducks together after an opening loss to Boise State and the suspension of star TB LeGarrette Blount. The offense is explosive and the defense has been solid despite several injuries. USC continues to thrive under Pete Carroll, who has posted at least 11 victories in each of the past seven seasons. The Trojans won or shared the Pac-10 title in each of those seasons.
Edge: USC

X-factor:
Halftime adjustments almost are always vital, and recent indications suggest Oregon may have an edge there. The Ducks have outscored opponents 88-43 in the third quarter this season, including 42-7 in the past two games. Conversely, USC has allowed a combined 47 second-half points in its past two games.

Oregon will win if:
Masoli must throw effectively enough to give the Ducks a viable option to their running game. The Ducks' pass rush must pressure Barkley. Continuing a recent trend of big plays on special teams also would be a big boost.

USC will win if:
Barkley must not be rattled by the crowd and the importance of the game. He needs to put together another solid performance, get Williams involved in the offense quickly and avoid interceptions. The defense has to slow the Oregon running game and force obvious passing downs.

EXPERT PICKS
Olin Buchanan: USC 24, Oregon 20
Tom Dienhart: Oregon 33, USC 31
Mike Huguenin: Oregon 24, USC 20
Jason King: USC 27, Oregon 24
Steve Megargee: USC 27, Oregon 21

Olin Buchanan is the senior college football writer for Rivals.com. He can be reached at olin@rivals.com.




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