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October 23, 2009

Olin Buchanan
Rivals.com College Football Senior Writer

At the base of the Wasatch Mountains, which tower from the east, BYU's LaVell Edwards Stadium is one of the most picturesque settings in college football.

And with TCU coming into Provo for a Mountain West Conference showdown on Saturday, it's also a most appropriate setting.

For years, the Horned Frogs have been trying to push a proverbial stone up a metaphorical mountain to qualify for a BCS bowl. But rolling a boulder up Provo's Y Mountain, Cascade Mountain or Squaw Peak might be easier.

Six times since 2002, the Horned Frogs have posted at least 10 victories, but they've never managed to complete a perfect season - the unwritten requirement for teams from non-automatic qualifying conferences to reach a BCS bowl.

This could be the season, though. The unbeaten Frogs are ranked eighth in the first BCS standings, and they have an advantageous schedule remaining if they can defeat BYU.

But that's a tough mountain to climb. The 16th-ranked Cougars boast a victory over Oklahoma and are among the nation's most explosive teams.

"We've talked about working up to this point at the beginning of the year, using the first seven games as a quadrant leading up to BYU, and we are here," TCU coach Gary Patterson said. "I really don't think you have to say too much about them. They beat Oklahoma and are ranked in the top 16. They have a great quarterback, great wide receivers, great fullback, great tailback, great tight end and very good players on defense."

The Cougars also have very good memories.

Last season, BYU was unbeaten, ranked ninth in the nation, riding a 16-game winning streak and had visions of making a BCS appearance. But the Cougars' BCS hopes were shattered in a 32-7 loss to TCU in Fort Worth. Adding insult to injury, archrival Utah eventually went to the Sugar Bowl and upset Alabama.

"Maybe we had a false sense of security that we were a little bit better than what we were," BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall said. "I think because we had beaten TCU the previous two years, possibly some of the luster had come off playing against them."

BYU star tight end Dennis Pitta concurred.

"That opened our eyes," he said. "I think we thought we were a lot better than we were. We didn't prepare as well as we should have and we didn't execute in the game. It left a bad taste in our mouths, and we understand what it takes to be successful."

Success for BYU means avoiding turnovers and protecting quarterback Max Hall from the fierce pass rush of TCU All-America defensive end Jerry Hughes. Last season, the Cougars committed four turnovers against TCU and Hughes sacked Hall four times.

This season, Hughes already has eight sacks for the Horned Frogs, who rank fourth in the nation in total defense. TCU hasn't allowed an opponent more than 21 points this season and the Frogs have held five opponents to 17 or fewer.

When the Horned Frogs force punts, they have a huge threat in dynamic Jeremy Kerley, who ranks fifth in the nation in punt returns and has brought two back for touchdowns.

But BYU has some weapons of its own. The Cougars rank seventh in the nation in total offense. Hall has passed for 2,069 yards and 16 touchdowns. Pitta has 34 receptions and five TDs.

BYU also has much different opinion of TCU. A year ago, they didn't respect the Frogs as much as they should have. Now, they view TCU in the same context as Utah.

"Obviously, we've had a rivalry with Utah for a long time. That's more important to the fans," Pitta said. "But the TCU rivalry is important to us. We understand they're at the top of our conference and they beat us last year. We look at is as a growing rivalry."

No doubt, TCU does, too.

On Saturday, though, the Frogs look at BYU as the next step in a steep climb to their goal.

"You want to be at this point. That's what we work for," Patterson said. "If you look at our pyramid of goals, the BCS championship is not the next level. It's still about going after a Mountain West Conference championship. This game is more about the conference than it is the BCS."

Sure it is. That claim would be questioned even if Patterson shouted it from the mountain tops. That is, assuming the Frogs could push their way up there.

Who gets the edge?

TCU RUSH OFFENSE VS. BYU RUSH DEFENSE:
The Horned Frogs don't have anyone with a huge rushing output, but four players have rushed for more than 220 yards. The leader is Joseph Turner, who has gained 399 yards and has seven touchdowns. TCU averages 225.0 yards per game to rank 11th nationally. TCU has won 35 consecutive games when rushing for at least 167 yards. But rushing yardage doesn't come easily against BYU, which allows an average of 101.1 yards to rank 23rd nationally. Eleven Cougars have posted between 24 and 41 tackles. Still, in its one loss, BYU surrendered 313 rushing yards to Florida State.
Edge: TCU

TCU PASS OFFENSE VS. BYU PASS DEFENSE:
Andy Dalton's passing stats won't awe anyone -- 1,223 yards, eight touchdowns, three interceptions. But he's money in the second half: He has completed 77.6 percent of his attempts with six touchdowns and no interceptions after intermission. Explosive WR Jimmy Young has averaged 17.5 yards on 16 caches. Jeremy Kerley and Bart Johnson have 19 catches each. BYU ranks 89th in the country in pass defense. The Cougars allowed 322 yards and three touchdown passes to MWC bottom-feeder San Diego State last week. FS Scott Johnson has three interceptions, and 5-foot-6 CB Brian Logan has 11 pass breakups. BYU has come up with 12 sacks, which is eighth in the league.
Edge: TCU

BYU RUSH OFFENSE VS. TCU RUSH DEFENSE:
Although BYU is adept at throwing the ball, the Cougars can run it, too. They average 163.4 rushing yards. RB Harvey Unga, who did not play in the season-opening win over Oklahoma and played sparingly the following week against Tulane, has rushed for at least 81 yards in each of the past five games and has eight touchdown runs in that span. The Cougars have rushed for more than 160 yards in each of the past three games. That string could end against TCU, which ranks eight in the nation in rush defense. The Frogs have held five opponents to 117 or fewer rushing and four were held to less than 100. Clemson's C.J. Spiller is the only opposing runner to exceed 100 yards against the Horned Frogs. LB Daryl Washington has 48 tackles and LB Tank Carder has 36 to lead the Frogs.
Edge: TCU

BYU PASS OFFENSE VS. TCU PASS DEFENSE:
Cougars QB Max Hall is fourth in the nation in passing efficiency and 16th in passing yards per game (295.6). He has exceeded 300 passing yards in five of seven games and has 16 touchdown passes - but also 10 interceptions. TE Dennis Pitta is among the best in the nation at his position. He has 34 catches, with five going for TDs. WR O'Neill Chambers has 21 catches. The key for BYU is protecting Hall. The Cougars allowed four sacks last season to TCU DE Jerry Hughes, who already has eight this season. The Horned Frogs have 20 sacks this season. Aided by that pressure, TCU ranks ninth in the country in pass defense.
Edge: BYU

SPECIAL TEAMS
Both teams are solid, but unspectacular in the kicking game. TCU K Ross Evans has converted 6-of-7 field-goal attempts, with a long of 38 yards. BYU's Mitch Payne has hit 4-of-5, with the longest from 44 yards. TCU P Anson Kelton averages 35.2 yards, compared to BYU's Riley Stephenson, who averages 40.1 yards per attempt. The biggest difference is on returns. BYU's Chambers is scary on punt and kickoff returns. Still, he's not as dangerous as TCU's Kerley, who averages 17.1 yards on punt returns and has returned two for touchdowns.
Edge: TCU

COACHING STAFFS
There are no questions about TCU's Gary Patterson, who has 79 wins in eight-plus seasons in Fort Worth. OK, there is one: Why is he still there? Each year, his name surfaces as a contender for coaching positions at higher-profile programs, but he's resisted temptations to leave. Meanwhile, Bronco Mendenhall has led BYU to double-digit victory totals in each of the past three seasons, and has won two MWC championships. After taking over a program that had endured three consecutive losing seasons, he has 44 wins in four-plus seasons.
Edge: BYU

X-factor:
Kerley's punt returns have provided TCU a huge spark in two of its past three games. He had a touchdown on 71-yard return against SMU. Last week, he scored on a 69-yard return that broke open a close game and enabled the Frogs to blow past Colorado State 44-6. He's obviously a great threat. BYU may have an answer. Stephenson punts high and BYU has excellent coverage. The longest punt return by a BYU opponent is just 5 yards.

BYU will win if:
The Cougars must avoid turnovers and hold off Hughes, both of which they failed to accomplish in last season's loss at TCU. Given time, Hall can pick defenses apart (ask Oklahoma). Preventing big plays is key, too. TCU has scored seven touchdowns via pass or punt return that have covered at least 25 yards.

TCU will win if:
The Horned Frogs must neutralize BYU's running game and force the Cougars to be one-dimensional. That would allow Hughes and the rest of the TCU defensive front to aggressively rush Hall and will ease some of the burden on the secondary. The Frogs need to get the ball to Young and Kerley, who have the ability to score from anywhere on the field.

EXPERT PICKS
Olin Buchanan: TCU 27, BYU 21
Tom Dienhart: TCU 30, BYU 24
David Fox: TCU 27, BYU 14
Mike Huguenin: TCU 24, BYU 20
Steve Megargee: TCU 21, BYU 20

Olin Buchanan is the senior college football writer for Rivals.com. He can be reached at olin@rivals.com.




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